Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Waco, TX

Waco, TX is showing a mixed CRE distress picture: 2 of its 4 signal legs are elevated, with bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line elevated at $476.6mm (or 15.83% of the metro's CRE lent into it) and securitized loans in special servicing elevated at 5 rows (55.0% of the securitized balance read). Store closures measured 0 over the trailing 365 days, ranking 348th of 392 metros by count, and layoff notices also measured 0, ranking 313th of 386 — both reading quiet. Of the 6 pairs, 1 has both elevated, 1 has both quiet, and 4 disagree, with the disagreements leaning toward financial/structural stress (bank and CMBS hot) without visible tenant or employment distress. The bank leg's reading is elevated by rate, not just size; the CMBS elevation is a floor measured over 20.0% of special-servicing rows, so treat it as a minimum. Overall, the distress here is on the lender/book side, not the tenant/employer side.

In Waco, TX, the elevated distress signals are bank_distressed_cre and cmbs_ss. Specifically, 18.4% of bank CRE is at risk (90th percentile), with 1 distressed bank holding $476.6mm in distressed CRE (31.8% of its $3.01bn allocation). On the CMBS side, special servicing covers $55.0mm in UPB, representing 55.2% of the metro’s UPB.

The reading on store closures and WARN notices is unavailable—the count is 0 in both cases, but the dataset does not provide a direct signal for these metrics. Also absent is any reading on convergence (coded as 2, but the phase_reason notes “an isolated signal, not a convergence,” and the phase_sequence is “no reading”).

Waco, TX sits in slack territory on refinancing capacity: the wall is $4.5mm against 14 qualifying banks, with room_after_committed of $307.5mm and room_before_committed of $494.1mm, giving a wall_to_room of 0.01 and a wall_to_room_before_committed_draws of 0.0091 — so 0.01 is BELOW the median of 0.20, so this metro is LESS strained than the typical ranked metro, and its rank of 259 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain, places it among the least strained. The caveat is that the wall here is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load — and with maturing_loans of 1 and distressed_share of 0.0% the visible load is minimal; note also that room is a proxy, being what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line after deducting construction draws already committed, and that 2 banks are excluded here while 14 qualify. A fuller answer on the metro's whole maturity load is not available from these figures, so the reading is confined to the CMBS wall against regional and community bank room.

Over the trailing window_days of 365, the on-the-ground readings for Waco, TX show store_closures of 1, with warn_notices at 0 and jobs_affected at 0 — though the latter should be read as a floor, since affected_employees is nullable and notices stating no headcount contribute nothing to the total. The cre_bankruptcies figure of 4 carries a critical caveat: it is a STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Note also that the closure figure reflects only APPROVED rows matched ZIP -> CBSA, so it mirrors the Metro Pulse page rather than the convergence board, which applies neither filter and counts higher.