Start free trial
No credit card required
Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Tucson, AZ
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · AZ
The read
$839M of CMBS across 56 loans. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2031 ($235M, 28% of the book). Retail is the largest book ($467M, 0.0% distressed). 25 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (1,379 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Retail carries the book clean, but the ground tells another story
Tucson's securitized credit book runs to $839M across 56 CMBS loans, and for now the servicer record is quiet. Retail dominates the stack at $467M — the largest sector by a wide margin — and it sits at 0.0% distressed, against a 2.6% national retail rate. That is a cleaner mark than the sector carries across the country, and it anchors a book that shows no declared distress in its reported sectors.
The pressure, where there is any, is a maturity question rather than a performance one. The heaviest load lands in 2031, when $235M — 28% of the entire book — comes due, with another cluster stacked across 2028 through 2030. None of those vintages carries declared distress today; the test is refinancing a concentrated slug of paper several years out, not a servicer problem on the page now.
The divergence is on the ground. The filed record shows 25 distress events over the past year — six store closures and nineteen layoff notices — touching 1,379 jobs. That is a real-economy signal the CMBS tape has not registered, and it is the number worth watching in a metro where the securitized book otherwise reads clean.
Written 2026-10-29
CMBS Distressed UPB
Not reported
fewer than 3 loans are distressed here, too few for the share to be a rate — the book size and loan count above are unaffected
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$136M
Banks HQ’d Here (stressed)
0 / 0
Bank Early-Warning
0 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
6
Layoff Notices (1y)
19 / 1,379 jobs
0.44% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
56 / $839M
Unemployment · Aug 2026
5.7%
+0.8pp yr
Office-Using Jobs · 2024
56,382
-8.6% yr
How much CRE distress is there in Tucson, AZ right now?
Tucson shows three of four signals elevated: 6 closures (1.91 per 100k jobs, elevated on the count but below the median of its own rate ranking — a size filter, not a rate story), 19 notices (WARN, 0.3%, a floor measured over 52.6% of notices with the rest reporting no headcount), and $363.9mm of bank CRE over the noncurrent line (14.45%, allocated by branch deposits, an allocation the call report cannot confirm), while securitized loans in special servicing read 2 loan records (4.17%) and are not elevated. Of 6 pairs of legs compared, 3 are pairs with both legs elevated, 0 are pairs with both legs quiet, 3 are pairs where the legs disagree, and 0 are pairs that cannot be read because a leg is blind; across the four legs, 3 are elevated. Where the legs disagree, the notes read retail failing on buildings the securitized tape does not hold, employers cutting while the securitized book has not moved, and lenders stressed on a book the tape cannot see — mechanism differences, not a severity ranking.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
6 closures | 1.91 per 100k jobs | 76 of 392 | 210 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
19 notices | 0.3% | 36 of 382 | 73 of 382 | elevated
floor trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$363.9mm | 14.45% | 78 of 393 | 31 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
2 loan records | 4.17% | 66 of 335 | 80 of 335 | quiet 2026-09-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
124 of 447 metros have at least one blind leg and 54 are blind on all four. Those 54 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.
Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes.
Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro.
A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason.
elevated by size, not by rate — store closures clear a flat count threshold while sitting below the median of their own rate ranking. Any reading that leans on them is a statement about how big this metro is.
Store closures: divided by 313,855 jobs
— all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading (trailing 365 days to today).
Layoff notices (WARN): divided by 453,756 employed
— employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted (trailing 365 days to today).
Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line: divided by $2,517.5 mm
— bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits (2026-06-30).
Securitized loans in special servicing: divided by $839.0 mm
— current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio (2026-09-29).
Written from the figures above · CBSA 46060 · stress_metro · last changed 01 Nov 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Aug 2026
5.7%
+0.8pp yr
Last 24 months
3.6%5.7%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 313,855 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
Fewer than 3 loans here are distressed, too few for a distress rate to mean anything — so there is no rate to test against this metro's property mix. 0 of 1 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$136M — 16% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Too few loans here are distressed for a quarterly rate to be a rate, so no direction is stated. The quarters that can be read are shown below.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $522M of the metro's $839M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$136M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 3 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$4M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
36.21× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.13×.
Regional Bank Room
$4M
After Committed Draws
$2M / −52%
Maturing ÷ Room
36.21×
Banks In Footprint
3 / 1 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $21M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $2M
comes out of the room above, leaving $2M,
with 1 bank
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $19M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
Counted — 3 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academy Bank, National Association MO | 0.6% | 228% total 294%
|
🔒 | 1.11% |
| First National Bank Texas TX | 0.3% | 206% total 240%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| Southwest Heritage Bank AZ | 33.4% | 311% total 428%
|
🔒 | 0.28% |
Not counted — 15 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Bank Of America, National Association NC · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Bmo Bank National Association IL · U.s. Bank National Association OH · The Northern Trust Company IL · First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company NC
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Zions Bancorporation, N.a. UT · Western Alliance Bank AZ · Busey Bank IL · Enterprise Bank & Trust MO · Columbia Bank OR · Glacier Bank MT · Wafd Bank WA
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 07-1 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2026) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 07-1, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
315 banks holding $263.8B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
No locally-headquartered banks in our FDIC data for this metro.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
25 local distress events in the past year (1,379 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-09-28
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-09-15
LAYOFF
10 jobs · Sahuarita
2026-09-15
LAYOFF
Sahuarita
2026-08-17
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-08-12
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-07-28
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-07-21
CLOSURE
Tucson
2026-07-21
LAYOFF
99 jobs · Tucson
2026-07-14
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-07-09
LAYOFF
99 jobs · Tucson
2026-07-09
LAYOFF
Tucson
2026-07-07
CLOSURE
Tucson
2026-06-23
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-06-16
BANKRUPTCY
Chapter 11
2026-06-12
LAYOFF
77 jobs · Tucson
What has actually happened on the ground in Tucson, AZ recently?
In Tucson, AZ over the past 365, the on-the-ground reading shows 6 store closures and 19 WARN layoff notices affecting 1,379 jobs, with 9 CRE-related bankruptcies. The jobs figure should be read as a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute nothing to it, and the CRE-related bankruptcies figure is a state-level proxy rather than a metro-native count.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 6
- WARN layoff notices
- 19
- Jobs on those notices
- 1,379
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 9
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — a court case counts in its filing district and an SEC 8-K in the filer's state, not where the property is, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Each court case is counted once even when both PACER and CourtListener carry it. A court case's state is its filing district; an SEC 8-K or news item carries the filer's state. Coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 46060 · geo_events · last changed 30 Oct 2026
· Ask your own question →
What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read — one page for every market we cover. The platform goes loan‑by‑loan inside it: which buildings carry the stress, when their debt comes due, and your own portfolio benchmarked against the market you are standing in.