San Jose carries $6.5 billion of CMBS across 94 loans, and the servicer-filed record is moving the right way. The metro's distress rate — loans in special servicing or 60-plus days delinquent — sits at 7.9% as of July 2026, down on a falling trend, with $0.5 billion of paper carrying that flag. Office dominates the book at $5.1 billion; the national office distress rate runs 11.1%, and the metro's modest $0.3 billion retail slice shows no filed distress against a 2.6% national mark. Median DSCR of 2.36 underscores a lender base that, at the portfolio level, still has cushion.
The pressure point is the calendar. Some $1.9 billion comes due inside 24 months, and the heaviest single-year load lands in 2027 at $1.3 billion. Behind it, $1.2 billion matures in 2030, $1.0 billion in 2031 and $0.8 billion in 2034 — the later vintages carrying no filed distress today. The near-term maturities are where refinancing math gets tested.
Beneath the filed figures, the on-the-ground record tells a harder story: 134 distress events over the past year — 115 layoff notices and 19 store closures — tied to 11,188 jobs. Unemployment stood at 4.3% in August 2026, down 0.4 points year over year. The gap between an easing servicer record and a still-active stream of layoff filings is the tension to watch in this metro.
In San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, all four feeds read elevated: store closures came to 20 closures, or 1.93 per 100k jobs, layoff notices (WARN) totaled 127 notices at 1.01%, bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line stood at $3.04bn, or 10.84%, and securitized loans in special servicing amounted to 6 loan records at 7.79%. That gives 4 legs elevated out of four, with 6 pairs of legs compared all showing both legs elevated, 0 pairs with both legs quiet, 0 pairs where the legs disagree, and 0 pairs that cannot be read because a leg is blind. One caveat: the closures leg clears a flat count threshold while sitting below the median of its own rate ranking, so that signal reflects the metro's size rather than stress per unit of itself.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
20 closures | 1.93 per 100k jobs | 28 of 392 | 208 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
127 notices | 1.01% | 5 of 382 | 10 of 382 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.04bn | 10.84% | 20 of 393 | 51 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
6 loan records | 7.79% | 29 of 335 | 59 of 335 | elevated 2026-09-29
|
In San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE, where distressed lender CRE stands at $3.04bn and bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile at 8.5%, alongside CMBS in special servicing at $508.0mm, equal to 7.8% of this metro's CMBS balance in special servicing, plus store closures and WARN notices; the phase reads as peak, with convergence of 4. The bank-side asset read shows assets at those lenders of $0.00bn, and bank CRE lent into this metro of $28.04bn against a share of bank CRE needing no branch-deposit allocation of 3.8%. CMBS in special servicing is the one credit figure stated in dollar terms only, so the reading of any other CMBS dollar measure is unavailable.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ctbc Bank Corp. (Usa) CA | 34.4% | 214% total 252%
|
🔒 | 2.90% |
| Pinnacle Bank CA | 76.3% | 228% total 409%
|
🔒 | 1.52% |
| Citizens Business Bank, National Association CA | 14.6% | 281% total 406%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Evertrust Bank CA | 28.6% | 211% total 253%
|
🔒 | 0.44% |
| First Commercial Bank (Usa) CA | 19.2% | 163% total 191%
|
🔒 | 1.96% |
| Safra National Bank Of New York NY | 1.6% | 102% total 102%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Fremont Bank CA | 6.9% | 217% total 329%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Everbank, National Association FL | 0.4% | 169% total 175%
|
🔒 | 1.03% |
| First Bank MO | 1.0% | 184% total 273%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| State Bank Of India (California) CA | 12.0% | 276% total 327%
|
🔒 | 1.91% |
| Open Bank CA | 3.7% | 255% total 458%
|
🔒 | 3.02% |
| Gbc International Bank CA | 13.5% | 269% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| Community West Bank CA | 0.4% | 298% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.56% |
| Metropolitan Bank CA | 13.5% | 340% total 421%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| United Business Bank CA | 9.8% | 402% total 555%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| West Coast Community Bank CA | 8.8% | 362% total 474%
|
🔒 | 0.58% |
| Golden Bank, National Association TX | 7.0% | 327% total 505%
|
🔒 | 2.27% |
| Poppy Bank CA | 4.3% | 360% total 557%
|
🔒 | 2.15% |
| Commercial Bank Of California CA | 3.0% | 470% total 592%
|
🔒 | 0.02% |
| Mechanics Bank CA | 0.8% | 340% total 362%
|
🔒 | 0.30% |
| Exchange Bank CA | 0.0% | 225% total 255%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle Bank | $482M | 228% total 409%
|
1.52% | 🔒 |
| Avidbank | $1.1B | 265% total 325%
|
1.35% | 🔒 |
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara carries a tight capacity band: the CMBS maturing in the window is $1.86bn across 24 loans, against local bank room, after those draws, of $455.3mm, giving a Wall-to-room ratio of 4.09, which ranks 20 out of 275 metros ranked counting from the most strained. That ratio sits at 3.16 before committed draws, when room, before committed draws, was $588.8mm, and committed construction draws of $227.1mm absorb the difference. The comparison is qualified by the fact that 21 qualifying local banks are counted while 11 are excluded from the calculation, and the pipeline itself is modest relative to the metro's total CMBS balance here of $6.52bn, with a distressed share of this metro's CMBS of 7.8%. On these figures local banks look strained relative to the maturing wall, though the reading reflects a deposit-footprint proxy rather than a measured lending relationship.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | +4.6% | 96.6% | +4.3% | 2026-07-30 |
| ESS | — | +4.4% | 96.8% | — | 2026-07-30 |
Over the trailing 365 days in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, the record shows 99 WARN layoff notices and 20 store closures, with 10,313 jobs on those notices — a figure that is a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute no jobs. cRE-related bankruptcies come in at 67, but this is a state proxy: filings are counted where the court case is filed or where an SEC filer is based, not where the property sits, and coverage widened on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.