San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont holds $8.2 billion of CMBS across 214 loans, and office is the dominant book at $5.0 billion. That concentration looks worse than it reads: office here runs at a 10.0% distress rate, below its 11.1% national mark. The elevated risk sits elsewhere. Mixed-Use, a smaller $0.7 billion book, is distressed at 9.3% — 1.7 times the national rate of 5.4%. Industrial and Retail, by contrast, show no filed distress at all.
The maturity wall is back-loaded. The heaviest load lands in 2029, with $2.2 billion — 27% of the book — coming due at an 11.0% distress rate. The nearer years are lighter: $1.0 billion matures in 2028 at 3.6%, and $1.4 billion comes due inside the next 24 months. Across the metro, median DSCR stands at 2.0.
Distress is flat in the filed record, at 11.4% as of July 2026. On the ground, the past year brought 226 distress events — 77 store closures and 149 layoff notices totaling 15,778 jobs. Office-using employment, at 694,628 jobs, is down 4.6% year over year, even as metro unemployment sits at 4.6%, off 0.3 points from a year earlier.
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA reads elevated on every leg available: 77 closures (3.7 per 100k jobs), 228 notices (0.69%), $8.36bn of bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line (17.16%), and 16 loan records of securitized loans in special servicing (11.03%), so 4 legs elevated out of four, with 6 pairs of legs compared, 6 pairs with both legs elevated, 0 pairs where the legs disagree, 0 pairs with both legs quiet, and 0 pairs that cannot be read because a leg is blind. The bank leg carries a caveat worth flagging: only a small share of those dollars sit at banks that lend in a single metro and need no allocation, with the remainder split by branch deposits that the call report cannot confirm.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
77 closures | 3.7 per 100k jobs | 6 of 392 | 78 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
228 notices | 0.69% | 3 of 382 | 18 of 382 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$8.36bn | 17.16% | 6 of 393 | 26 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
16 loan records | 11.03% | 10 of 335 | 45 of 335 | elevated 2026-09-29
|
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremont Bank CA | 91.2% | 217% total 329%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Everbank, National Association FL | 6.1% | 169% total 175%
|
🔒 | 1.03% |
| Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Usa, National Association NY | 24.8% | 154% total 183%
|
🔒 | 11.70% |
| Farmers & Merchants Bank Of Central California CA | 9.3% | 164% total 224%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| California Pacific Bank CA | 100.0% | 117% total 159%
|
🔒 | 19.25% |
| Citizens Business Bank, National Association CA | 14.1% | 281% total 406%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| First Bank MO | 6.1% | 184% total 273%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Gateway Bank, F.s.b. CA | 100.0% | 190% total 204%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Amalgamated Bank NY | 5.1% | 235% total 239%
|
🔒 | 4.15% |
| First Commercial Bank (Usa) CA | 9.8% | 163% total 191%
|
🔒 | 1.96% |
| Exchange Bank CA | 7.0% | 225% total 255%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| Beneficial State Bank CA | 49.4% | 285% total 395%
|
🔒 | 3.44% |
| Summit Bank CA | 100.0% | 270% total 325%
|
🔒 | 1.94% |
| Ctbc Bank Corp. (Usa) CA | 1.9% | 214% total 252%
|
🔒 | 2.90% |
| State Bank Of India (California) CA | 20.1% | 276% total 327%
|
🔒 | 1.91% |
| Bac Community Bank CA | 29.6% | 276% total 362%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Gbc International Bank CA | 12.4% | 269% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| Beacon Business Bank, National Association CA | 100.0% | 371% total 492%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Federal Savings And Loan Association Of San Rafael CA | 100.0% | 454% total 455%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank Of The Orient CA | 96.4% | 378% total 580%
|
🔒 | 2.35% |
| Metropolitan Bank CA | 86.5% | 340% total 421%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank Of Marin CA | 64.8% | 366% total 440%
|
🔒 | 0.50% |
| California Bank Of Commerce, National Association CA | 38.1% | 313% total 437%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| United Business Bank CA | 33.3% | 402% total 555%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| Poppy Bank CA | 22.4% | 360% total 557%
|
🔒 | 2.15% |
| Mechanics Bank CA | 22.1% | 340% total 362%
|
🔒 | 0.30% |
| Commercial Bank Of California CA | 19.6% | 470% total 592%
|
🔒 | 0.02% |
| Liberty Bank, National Association CA | 17.2% | 480% total 519%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Tri Counties Bank CA | 15.8% | 315% total 396%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Five Star Bank CA | 15.1% | 536% total 640%
|
🔒 | 0.35% |
| Summit State Bank CA | 12.6% | 341% total 509%
|
🔒 | 2.74% |
| Golden Bank, National Association TX | 6.4% | 327% total 505%
|
🔒 | 2.27% |
| Preferred Bank CA | 5.4% | 357% total 380%
|
🔒 | 2.33% |
| Southwestern National Bank TX | 3.3% | 321% total 540%
|
🔒 | 0.34% |
| Safra National Bank Of New York NY | 0.0% | 102% total 102%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneficial State Bank | $913M | 285% total 395%
|
3.44% | 🔒 |
| California Pacific Bank | $69M | 117% total 159%
|
19.25% | 🔒 |
| Bank Of The Orient | $802M | 378% total 580%
|
2.35% | 🔒 |
| Summit Bank | $151M | 270% total 325%
|
1.94% | 🔒 |
| Bank Of San Francisco | $284M | 235% total 300%
|
0.08% | 🔒 |
| Metropolitan Bank | $127M | 340% total 421%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Mission National Bank | $149M | 378% total 429%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Beacon Business Bank, National Association | $97M | 371% total 492%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont carries $1.41bn of CMBS maturing in the window across 67 loans, against $1.09bn of local bank room after committed construction draws — a wall-to-room ratio of 1.29, which sits above the median and ranks 51 out of 275 metros counting from the most strained. The picture is less tight before those draws are deducted: room of $1.44bn puts the ratio at 0.98. Against a total CMBS balance here of $8.23bn and a distressed share of 11.1%, the qualifying local banks number 35 while 14 are excluded from the calculation, so the room figure reflects only part of the lending base.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | +4.6% | 96.6% | +4.3% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | +8.7% | +6.5% | 97.7% | +5.6% | 2026-04-28 |
| ESS | — | +4.4% | 96.8% | — | 2026-07-30 |
| UDR | +6.5% | +8.0% | 97.8% | +7.6% | 2026-07-27 |
Over the most recent 365 days in the window, San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA recorded 149 WARN layoff notices affecting 15,961 jobs on those notices, alongside 77 store closures; the cRE-related bankruptcies reading is a state-proxy count of 67 rather than a metro-native figure, so it reflects CRE-likely filings in the states where this metro's collateral sits rather than activity located in the metro itself.