Commercial Real Estate Credit —
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · CA
The read
$3.1B of CMBS across 146 loans. Nothing in this book is distressed today; Retail is the largest exposure at $876M. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029 ($564M). Distress is flat in the filed record — 0.0% as of 2026-07. 99 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (4,220 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
A Clean Book in San Diego, but the Street-Level Count Is Running
San Diego carries $3.1 billion of CMBS across 146 loans, and as of July 2026 none of it is distressed — nothing in special servicing, nothing 60-plus days past due. Retail is the largest exposure at $876 million, followed by roughly $0.8 billion of office and $0.6 billion of hospitality, and every one of those sectors sits at a 0.0% distress rate against national marks of 2.7% for retail, 11.3% for office and 6.1% for hospitality. The filed record has stayed flat, with a median DSCR of 2.25 backing up the servicer's read.
The schedule is the thing to watch rather than the current status. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2029 at $564 million, with roughly $0.6 billion coming due inside the next 24 months and further clusters of about $0.4 billion each in 2027, 2030 and 2031. All of it is clean today, but this is a book that refinances into the back half of the decade rather than one that has already cleared its hurdles.
Below the loan tape, the on-the-ground count is more active than the zero distress rate suggests: 99 distress events over the past year — 30 store closures and 69 layoff notices totaling 4,220 jobs. Office-using employment stands at 320,602 and is down 3.7% year over year, even as metro unemployment sits at 4.7%, three tenths lower than a year ago. The securitized book is quiet; the labor and street-level signals are not.
CMBS Distressed UPB
under $1M / 0.0%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$644M
Local Banks (stressed)
0 / 9
Bank Early-Warning
1 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
30
Layoff Notices (1y)
69 / 4,220 jobs
0.33% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
146 / $3.1B
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.7%
-0.3pp yr
Office-Using Jobs · 2024
320,602
-3.7% yr
How much CRE distress is there in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA right now?
In San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, distress signals are clearly elevated across most independent feeds. Store closures run at a rate of 2.01 per 100,000 jobs (20th of 392 metros by count, 168th by rate), while WARN layoff notices show 0.29% of the metro's employment (5th by count, 76th by rate). Bank CRE over the noncurrent line stands at 8.57% of allocated dollars (30th by count, 86th by rate).
However, the securitized loan leg reads 0.0% in special servicing, ranking 220th of 335 metros — this is notably quiet. Of the six possible pairings among the four legs, three show both elevated, zero both quiet, and three disagree. The disagreements are structural: closures hot with the tape quiet reads as retail failing on properties this tape doesn't hold; WARN hot with the tape quiet suggests employers cutting while the securitized book hasn't moved; and bank hot with tape quiet implies lenders are stressed on a portfolio the tape can't see. No adjudication was needed, as no leg is blind.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
26 closures | 2.01 per 100k jobs | 20 of 392 | 168 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
144 notices | 0.29% | 5 of 386 | 76 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$1.90bn | 8.57% | 30 of 393 | 86 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
0 loan records | 0% | 220 of 335 | 220 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 1291034, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 1567556, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 22147.8, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 3254.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 41740 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Which distress signals are elevated in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, and which cannot be read?
In San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA, the elevated distress signals include bank-distressed CRE (with distressed lender CRE at $1.90bn and 10.1% of bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile), store closures (26 in one year), and WARN notices (144 in one year). The reading for CMBS special servicing is unavailable, as the CMBS special servicing UPB is $0.0mm with a 0.0% share of metro UPB, indicating no CMBS distress is currently measurable.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $0.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 0.0%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $22.15bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 10.1%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $1.90bn
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.00bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 3.3%
- Signals reading elevated
- bank CRE over the noncurrent line, store closures, WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 3
- Phase
- early
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 0
- Distressed banks
- 0
- Store closures (past year)
- 26
- WARN notices (past year)
- 144
the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit — the leading edge
little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals
the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event
Written from the figures above · CBSA 41740 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 28 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.7%
-0.3pp yr
Last 24 months
3.9%5.1%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 1,291,034 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 0.0% distressed where its own property mix predicts 6.0% — $185M less than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 0 of 5 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
-6.0pp
… and loan size held fixed
-6.0pp
the gap is still there with loan size held fixed too
… and vintage held fixed
-4.9pp
the gap is still there with vintage held fixed too
The largest single contributor is Office: 37 loans, $802M, running 0.0% where the same type runs 11.4% elsewhere — worth 3.0pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$644M — 21% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FLAT — 0.0% now (2026-07), +0.0pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $1.1B of the metro's $3.1B; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$644M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 15 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$357M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
1.80× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$357M
After Committed Draws
$220M / −37%
Maturing ÷ Room
1.80×
Banks In Footprint
15 / 4 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $295M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $129M
comes out of the room above, leaving $220M,
with 8 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $166M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
2 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
2% of the room above sits at banks we could not
match to a commitment filing; they are left out of this deduction rather than assumed to have promised nothing.
Counted — 15 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endeavor Bank CA | 100.0% | 182% total 416%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Calprivate Bank CA | 57.5% | 252% total 431%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| Banner Bank WA | 5.9% | 253% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| First Bank MO | 3.1% | 184% total 273%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Banc Of California CA | 6.6% | 291% total 334%
|
🔒 | 4.24% |
| Balboa Thrift And Loan Association CA | 58.5% | 235% total 238%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Shinhan Bank America NY | 6.8% | 257% total 382%
|
🔒 | 0.88% |
| State Bank Of India (California) CA | 14.1% | 276% total 327%
|
🔒 | 1.91% |
| First Pacific Bank CA | 23.1% | 243% total 395%
|
🔒 | 0.31% |
| Citizens Business Bank, National Association CA | 1.1% | 281% total 406%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Beach Cities Commercial Bank CA | 18.6% | 273% total 633%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| C3bank, National Association CA | 84.9% | 361% total 403%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| California Bank Of Commerce, National Association CA | 22.0% | 313% total 437%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| Poppy Bank CA | 2.7% | 360% total 557%
|
🔒 | 2.15% |
| Mechanics Bank CA | 0.0% | 340% total 362%
|
🔒 | 0.30% |
Not counted — 25 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Bank Of America, National Association NC · U.s. Bank National Association OH · Citibank, National Association SD · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Bmo Bank National Association IL · First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company NC · Hatch Bank CA · The Northern Trust Company IL · Monet Bank TX
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Western Alliance Bank AZ · Zions Bancorporation, N.a. UT · Enterprise Bank & Trust MO · City National Bank CA · East West Bank CA · Midfirst Bank OK · Sunflower Bank, National Association TX · Cathay Bank CA · Bank Of Hope CA · Columbia Bank OR · Hanmi Bank CA
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
Axos Bank CA · Neighborhood National Bank CA · Home Bank Of California CA
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balboa Thrift And Loan Association | $101M | 235% total 238%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Endeavor Bank | $433M | 182% total 416%
|
0.54% | 🔒 |
| Calprivate Bank | $1.4B | 252% total 431%
|
0.40% | 🔒 |
| California Bank Of Commerce, National Association | $2.3B | 313% total 437%
|
0.22% | 🔒 |
| Axos Bank | $5.6B | 188% total 194%
|
0.09% | 🔒 |
| C3bank, National Association | $407M | 361% total 403%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Home Bank Of California | $182M | 404% total 582%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Neighborhood National Bank | $139M | 298% total 541%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
The reading for San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA is that bank capacity to refinance its maturing CRE looks tight: with 43 maturing loans totaling $643.6mm against regional and community bank room, the wall-to-room ratio is 2.92, which is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro, placing it 21 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain. That said, room is a proxy, and here it rests on 15 banks_qualifying against 14 banks_excluded_here, with the caveat that a high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event; the wall itself is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months, not the metro's whole maturity load, so 2.92 is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb, and distress is not the driver at a distressed_share of 0.0%.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $643.6mm
- … across this many loans
- 43
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $357.1mm
- Committed construction draws
- $295.2mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $220.4mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 2.92
- Rank, most strained
- 21
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 1.80
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 15
- … excluded from the calculation
- 14
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 0.0%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $3.10bn
- Capacity band
- tight
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
2.92 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
21 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 41740 · capacity_metro · last changed 13 Sep 2026
· Ask your own question →
Apartment-REIT Operating Read — same-store disclosures for this metro · as of 2026-07-30Set against the loan book →
Same-Store NOI
+0.4%
Same-Store Revenue
+1.4%
Occupancy
95.8%
Rent Growth
+1.3%
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | +1.5% | 96.0% | +1.6% | 2026-07-30 |
| CPT | -0.2% | +1.3% | 95.5% | +0.7% | 2026-04-30 |
| EQR | +1.0% | +1.3% | 96.0% | +1.7% | 2026-04-28 |
| ESS | — | +1.5% | 95.7% | — | 2026-07-30 |
Same-store operating results disclosed by public apartment REITs (AVB · EQR · ESS · MAA · CPT · UDR) for this market in their quarterly supplements. Directional market context — an operating trend, not a Verstavo score.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
99 local distress events in the past year (4,220 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
El Cajon
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
El Cajon
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Poway
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Poway
2026-09-09
LAYOFF
200 jobs · Escondido
2026-09-04
LAYOFF
36 jobs · San Diego
2026-08-31
CLOSURE
La Mesa
2026-08-28
LAYOFF
Escondido
2026-08-26
LAYOFF
San Diego
2026-08-24
CLOSURE
San Diego
2026-08-24
LAYOFF
Escondido
2026-08-19
LAYOFF
50 jobs · Escondido
2026-08-17
LAYOFF
San Diego
2026-08-17
LAYOFF
San Diego
2026-08-16
CLOSURE
San Diego
What has actually happened on the ground in San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA recently?
Over the trailing 365 days, the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA metro shows 30 store closures and 69 WARN notices, with 4,220 jobs affected. The jobs figure is a floor, as notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs. On the bankruptcy side, the reading is 3, but this is a STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 30
- WARN layoff notices
- 69
- Jobs on those notices
- 4,220
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 3
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 41740 · geo_events · last changed 13 Sep 2026
· Ask your own question →
What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.