Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom carries $2.0B of CMBS across 100 loans, and the filed distress record is holding flat — 1.6% as of July 2026. That is the number that matters most here: the servicer-declared record is not moving, and the metro's median DSCR sits at a comfortable 1.93. Bank exposure is thin, with three institutions tracked and none flagged.
Office is the largest book at $684M and the clearest pocket of stress, running 5.0% distressed — elevated for this metro, but well inside the 11.3% national office rate. Retail ($0.6B), self-storage ($0.2B) and hospitality ($0.1B) show no distress in the filed record. The maturity wall builds toward the back end: 2030 carries the heaviest load at $598M, or 29% of the book, and that vintage shows no distress today. The nearer 2028 slice is smaller but carries an 11.3% distress rate.
The on-the-ground signal is louder than the securitized one. The metro logged 75 distress events over the past year — 26 store closures and 49 layoff notices — touching 4,175 jobs. Unemployment stands at 5.0%, down 0.3 points year over year, while office-using employment of 169,915 has slipped 0.9%. The corporate footprint is thinning at the margin, even as the filed loan record stays put.
For Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA, distress is elevated across three of the four measured legs. Store closures sit at 26 closures (3.18 per 100k jobs, ranked 20th by count and 80th by rate out of 392 metros), while WARN layoff notices total 85 (0.38% of employment, ranked 9th by count and 50th by rate out of 386 metros). Bank CRE over the noncurrent line stands at $1,262.3mm (6.6% of allocated CRE, ranked 38th by count and 113th by rate out of 393 metros), with only 21.7% of those dollars at lenders needing no branch-deposit allocation. The securitized loans in special servicing leg is unmeasurable—4 rows carry no balance, so the rate is unavailable and cannot be read as quiet. Among the three adjudicable pairs, all three agree on elevated conditions (closures-WARN, closures-bank, WARN-bank), while three pairs involving the blind CMBS leg are unadjudicated. No pair shows disagreement.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
26 closures | 3.18 per 100k jobs | 20 of 392 | 80 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
85 notices | 0.38% | 9 of 386 | 50 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$1.26bn | 6.6% | 38 of 393 | 113 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
4 loan records | — | — | — | cannot be read
not measurable 2026-07-29
|
In Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE (with 21.7% of bank CRE allocated to at-risk assets, or $1.26bn in distressed lender CRE), closures (26 store closures over the past year), and warn (85 WARN notices over the past year). The CMBS special-servicing reading is unavailable: while 4 loans sit in special servicing, their combined UPB is listed as $0.0mm due to missing balances on the tape, so the securitized side cannot be read — the 0.0% share is a data gap, not evidence of quiet. Additionally, the metro's convergence score is 3, with 2.5 in distressed bank assets (in billions), but the credit-side phase is obscured — the ground is deteriorating (closures/layoffs), yet CRE-credit distress behind it is not yet measurable, and the securitized exposure is invisible in this reading.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farmers & Merchants Bank Of Central California CA | 14.9% | 164% total 224%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| First Northern Bank Of Dixon CA | 67.3% | 221% total 279%
|
🔒 | 0.13% |
| Banner Bank WA | 4.5% | 253% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| First Bank MO | 3.1% | 184% total 273%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Plumas Bank CA | 8.5% | 235% total 408%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| Everbank, National Association FL | 0.2% | 169% total 175%
|
🔒 | 1.03% |
| Exchange Bank CA | 1.5% | 225% total 255%
|
🔒 | 0.59% |
| Citizens National Bank Of Texas TX | 1.9% | 215% total 416%
|
🔒 | 2.19% |
| River Valley Community Bank CA | 13.8% | 274% total 451%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Citizens Business Bank, National Association CA | 0.5% | 281% total 406%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Community West Bank CA | 11.4% | 298% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.56% |
| Oak Valley Community Bank CA | 1.6% | 289% total 379%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Five Star Bank CA | 78.2% | 536% total 640%
|
🔒 | 0.35% |
| Bank Of Marin CA | 10.8% | 366% total 440%
|
🔒 | 0.50% |
| Tri Counties Bank CA | 8.9% | 315% total 396%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Poppy Bank CA | 4.2% | 360% total 557%
|
🔒 | 2.15% |
| United Business Bank CA | 3.5% | 402% total 555%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| Mechanics Bank CA | 3.1% | 340% total 362%
|
🔒 | 0.30% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five Star Bank | $3.7B | 536% total 640%
|
0.35% | 🔒 |
| River City Bank | $4.2B | 649% total 675%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA screens as more strained than the typical metro on this measure: 18 banks qualifying against 6 banks excluded here, with a maturing wall of 37 maturing loans totaling $519.9mm against $388.6mm of room before committed draws and $278.5mm after — a wall-to-room of 1.87 and a wall-to-room before committed draws of 1.34, ranking 37 of 270 counting from the most strained. The ratio is an upper bound, since the wall is CMBS maturing within 24 months and room is a deposit-footprint proxy for what regional and community banks could still write; at $2.05bn CMBS UPB and a distressed share of 1.7%, capacity here is thin rather than clearly adequate, and the caveat that a high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event applies — explained_by_exclusion is false, so the strain is not attributed to bank exclusion in this case.
Over the past 365 days, the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA metro has recorded 49 WARN notices affecting 4,175 jobs, alongside 26 store closures and 3 CRE-likely bankruptcy filings. The bankruptcy figure is a state-level proxy, as filings are attributed by the filer's state rather than the property's exact location, so it is not metro-native; layoff and closure counts are ZIP-matched and review-approved.