Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Richmond, VA
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · VA
The read
$1.1B of CMBS across 50 loans. Office is both the largest book ($409M) and the most distressed (40.6% vs 11.3% national). The heaviest maturity load lands in 2028 ($425M, 40% of the book). Distress is flat in the filed record — 15.7% as of 2026-07. 25 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (2,050 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Office Carries the Distress in Richmond, and 2028 Is the Wall
Richmond's CMBS footprint runs to $1.1 billion across 50 loans, and the distress in it is concentrated in one place. Office is both the largest book at $409 million and the most distressed, with 40.6% of it in special servicing or 60-plus days delinquent — nearly four times the 11.3% national office rate. Retail, the other pillar of the market, tells the opposite story: a comparably sized book carrying no filed distress at all against a 2.7% national mark.
The calendar is the thing to watch. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2028, when $425 million — about 40% of the book — comes due, and 38.2% of that vintage is already distressed on the filed record. For now the metro-wide distress rate has held flat at 15.7% as of July 2026, and median DSCR across the book sits at 1.81, leaving the strain contained to the office column rather than spread across the market.
Beneath the loan tape, the on-the-ground record shows 25 distress events over the past year — 8 store closures and 17 layoff notices touching 2,050 jobs. Local unemployment stood at 3.8% in July 2026, up 0.4 point year over year, and none of the six banks tracked here register as distressed or on early-warning status.
CMBS Distressed UPB
$166M / 15.7%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$564M
Local Banks (stressed)
0 / 6
Bank Early-Warning
0 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
8
Layoff Notices (1y)
17 / 2,050 jobs
0.38% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
50 / $1.1B
Unemployment · Jul 2026
3.8%
+0.4pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Richmond, VA right now?
Richmond, VA is showing three of four stress signals elevated. Store closures are elevated at 7 closures (1.28 per 100k jobs), but this is driven by metro size rather than rate — the metro ranks 58th of 392 by count versus 236th by rate. WARN layoff notices are elevated with 16 notices (0.22% of employment), and bank CRE over the noncurrent line is elevated at $1,474.4mm (11.84% of allocated CRE). Securitized loans in special servicing, however, are not elevated, with 4 rows (15.76% of the securitized balance read here). Of the six pairs, three agree on elevated readings and three disagree. The disagreements tell a structural story: closures hot with the CMBS tape quiet reads as retail failing on buildings the tape doesn't hold; WARN hot with the tape quiet suggests employer cuts without the securitized book moving; and bank hot with tape quiet indicates lenders stressed on a book the tape cannot see. The CMBS leg's absence of elevation (4 rows at 15.76%) is not a sign of no distress — it reads a different population than the bank leg.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
7 closures | 1.28 per 100k jobs | 58 of 392 | 236 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
16 notices | 0.22% | 44 of 386 | 106 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$1.47bn | 11.84% | 33 of 393 | 49 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
4 loan records | 15.76% | 42 of 335 | 29 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'fork': 'elevated by size, not by rate', 'note': 'store closures clear a flat count threshold while sitting below the median of their own rate ranking. Any reading that leans on them is a statement about how big this metro is.'}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 547198, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 689987, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 12448.5, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 1053.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 40060 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in Richmond, VA, and which cannot be read?
In Richmond, VA, the elevated distress signals are bank-distressed CRE, closures, and WARN notices. Specifically, bank distressed CRE is $1.47bn, with a 90th percentile measure of 2.3% of bank CRE allocated to risk, while the bank CRE at risk at the P90 is 10.2%. Also elevated are closures (7 store closures in the past year) and WARN notices (16 in the past year). The CMBS special servicing reading is elevated as well, with $166.0mm in special servicing UPB, representing 15.8% of metro UPB. However, the reading for distressed bank assets is unavailable, as the figure provided is stated as 0 but the exact dollar amount in billions is not given—only the count of distressed banks (0) is noted. The overall convergence is 3, indicating a modest, early-phase signal.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $166.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 15.8%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $12.45bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 10.2%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $1.47bn
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.00bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 2.3%
- Signals reading elevated
- bank CRE over the noncurrent line, store closures, WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 3
- Phase
- early
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 4
- Distressed banks
- 0
- Store closures (past year)
- 7
- WARN notices (past year)
- 16
the ground is deteriorating but CRE credit has not yet been hit — the leading edge
tens of millions of distressed CRE exposure
the ground is wobbling (closures / layoffs) but little CRE-credit distress sits behind it yet — a real-economy signal, not (yet) a CRE-credit event
Written from the figures above · CBSA 40060 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
3.8%
+0.4pp yr
Last 24 months
2.8%3.9%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 15.7% distressed where its own property mix predicts 6.4% — $99M more than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 1 of 2 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
+9.3pp
… and loan size held fixed
+9.5pp
the gap is still there with loan size held fixed too
… and vintage held fixed
+9.1pp
the gap is still there with vintage held fixed too
The largest single contributor is Office: 15 loans, $409M, running 40.6% where the same type runs 11.1% elsewhere — worth 11.4pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$564M — 53% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FLAT — 15.7% now (2026-07), -0.4pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $836M of the metro's $1.1B; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$564M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 14 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$935M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.60× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$935M
After Committed Draws
$226M / −76%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.60×
Banks In Footprint
14 / 1 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $1.2B of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $709M
comes out of the room above, leaving $226M,
with 5 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $495M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
5 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 14 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Union Bank VA | 19.6% | 264% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.42% |
| Primis Bank VA | 40.7% | 188% total 317%
|
🔒 | 3.31% |
| Townebank VA | 14.3% | 249% total 345%
|
🔒 | 0.19% |
| Citizens And Farmers Bank VA | 65.2% | 267% total 304%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Blue Ridge Bank, National Association VA | 41.1% | 255% total 315%
|
🔒 | 0.14% |
| Fulton Bank, National Association PA | 0.7% | 184% total 283%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| Locus Bank, Inc. VA | 36.6% | 195% total 226%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| First Community Bank VA | 6.5% | 202% total 296%
|
🔒 | 0.20% |
| Chesapeake Bank VA | 11.2% | 226% total 282%
|
🔒 | 0.29% |
| First Bank VA | 20.0% | 283% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| The First Bank And Trust Company VA | 1.9% | 240% total 277%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| Virginia National Bank VA | 0.9% | 226% total 289%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Southern Bank And Trust Company NC | 0.1% | 158% total 320%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company VA | 0.5% | 335% total 424%
|
🔒 | 1.24% |
Not counted — 15 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Bank Of America, National Association NC · Truist Bank NC · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · The Bank Of Southside Virginia VA · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company NC · Citizens Bank And Trust Company VA
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Manufacturers And Traders Trust Company NY · Southstate Bank, National Association FL · Peoples Bank OH · First National Bank Of Pennsylvania PA · Woodforest National Bank TX · United Bank VA
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
New Horizon Bank, National Association VA · Community Bankers' Bank VA
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locus Bank, Inc. | $170M | 195% total 226%
|
0.71% | 🔒 |
| Atlantic Union Bank | $15.9B | 264% total 363%
|
0.42% | 🔒 |
| New Horizon Bank, National Association | $126M | 264% total 401%
|
0.08% | 🔒 |
| Citizens And Farmers Bank | $1.0B | 267% total 304%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Community Bankers' Bank | $73M | 286% total 351%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Richmond, VA have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Richmond, VA ranks 25 of 270, counting from the MOST strained, with a wall_to_room of 2.50 against 17 maturing loans totaling $563.7mm and room_after_committed of $225.6mm — though room_before_committed of $934.9mm and a wall_to_room_before_committed_draws of 0.60 show the tightness is largely a function of $1.20bn in committed draws already spoken for. The vetted figures give banks_qualifying as 14 and banks_excluded_here as 8, and with explained_by_exclusion false the strain reading is not explained away as an exclusion artifact, while a distressed_share of 15.7% signals real credit stress alongside the capacity squeeze.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $563.7mm
- … across this many loans
- 17
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $934.9mm
- Committed construction draws
- $1.20bn
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $225.6mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 2.50
- Rank, most strained
- 25
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.60
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 14
- … excluded from the calculation
- 8
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 15.7%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $1.06bn
- Capacity band
- tight
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
2.50 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
25 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 40060 · capacity_metro · last changed 13 Sep 2026
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Apartment-REIT Operating Read — same-store disclosures for this metro · as of 2026-07-29Set against the loan book →
Same-Store NOI
+5.4%
Same-Store Revenue
+4.3%
Occupancy
96.2%
Rent Growth
+3.7%
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAA | +5.8% | +4.7% | 96.2% | +2.9% | 2026-07-29 |
| UDR | +5.1% | +3.9% | 96.3% | +4.4% | 2025-10-29 |
Same-store operating results disclosed by public apartment REITs (AVB · EQR · ESS · MAA · CPT · UDR) for this market in their quarterly supplements. Directional market context — an operating trend, not a Verstavo score.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
25 local distress events in the past year (2,050 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-08-28
LAYOFF
545 jobs · Richmond
2026-08-24
CLOSURE
Richmond
2026-08-14
LAYOFF
Richmond
2026-08-10
LAYOFF
68 jobs · Richmond
2026-06-30
CLOSURE
Richmond
2026-06-05
LAYOFF
80 jobs · Ashland
2026-05-11
LAYOFF
117 jobs · Henrico
2026-05-04
LAYOFF
64 jobs · Henrico
2026-04-30
CLOSURE
Richmond
2026-04-30
CLOSURE
Richmond
2026-04-29
LAYOFF
50 jobs · Henrico
2026-04-27
LAYOFF
66 jobs · Henrico
2026-04-23
LAYOFF
428 jobs · Ashland
2026-04-14
LAYOFF
94 jobs · Richmond
2026-03-31
LAYOFF
109 jobs · Richmond
What has actually happened on the ground in Richmond, VA recently?
Over the trailing 365 days, the Richmond, VA record shows 8 store closures and 17 warn notices, with 2,050 jobs affected. The CRE bankruptcy reading is 1, though that figure is a STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 8
- WARN layoff notices
- 17
- Jobs on those notices
- 2,050
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 1
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 40060 · geo_events · last changed 13 Sep 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.