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Commercial Real Estate Credit —
New Haven, CT
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · CT
The read
$253M of CMBS across 22 loans. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2031 ($64M, 25% of the book). 14 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (293 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
CMBS Distressed UPB
$35M / 13.9%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$46M
Banks HQ’d Here (stressed)
0 / 0
Bank Early-Warning
0 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
13
Layoff Notices (1y)
1 / 293 jobs
0.12% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
22 / $253M
Unemployment · Aug 2026
4.9%
+0.6pp yr
Office-Using Jobs · 2024
42,204
How much CRE distress is there in New Haven, CT right now?
New Haven, CT shows signs of distress on the property side more than the employer side: store closures run at 13 closures and 5.2 per 100k jobs, and securitized loans in special servicing read 14 loan records at 13.83%, measured over only part of the special-servicing rows so the figure is a floor. Layoff notices are quiet at 1 notices and 0.1%, and bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line reads $191.8mm at 5.45%. That gives 2 legs elevated out of four, with 1 pairs with both legs elevated, 1 pairs with both legs quiet, 4 pairs where the legs disagree, 0 pairs that cannot be read because a leg is blind, out of 6 pairs of legs compared — the disagreements point to which mechanism is running rather than to severity.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
13 closures | 5.2 per 100k jobs | 40 of 392 | 34 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
1 notices | 0.1% | 218 of 382 | 171 of 382 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$191.8mm | 5.45% | 117 of 393 | 130 of 393 | quiet
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
14 loan records | 13.83% | 12 of 335 | 37 of 335 | elevated
floor 2026-09-29
|
6 pairs compared
1 both elevated
1 both quiet
4 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
2 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
124 of 447 metros have at least one blind leg and 54 are blind on all four. Those 54 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.
Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes.
Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro.
A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason.
Store closures: divided by 250,140 jobs
— all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading (trailing 365 days to today).
Layoff notices (WARN): divided by 284,515 employed
— employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted (trailing 365 days to today).
Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line: divided by $3,518.7 mm
— bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits (2026-06-30).
Securitized loans in special servicing: divided by $253.0 mm
— current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio (2026-09-29).
Written from the figures above · CBSA 35300 · stress_metro · last changed 01 Nov 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Aug 2026
4.9%
+0.6pp yr
Last 24 months
3.0%5.9%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 250,140 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
Too few CMBS loans here (22) to say whether this metro's rate is explained by its property mix — that comparison needs 25.
No CMBS sector data for this metro.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$46M — 18% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Too few loans here are distressed for a quarterly rate to be a rate, so no direction is stated. The quarters that can be read are shown below.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $248M of the metro's $253M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$46M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 9 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$356M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.13× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.13×.
Regional Bank Room
$356M
After Committed Draws
$156M / −55%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.13×
Banks In Footprint
9 / 1 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $226M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $187M
comes out of the room above, leaving $156M,
with 4 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $39M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 07-1 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
1 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
4% of the room above sits at banks we could not
match to a commitment filing; they are left out of this deduction rather than assumed to have promised nothing.
Counted — 9 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Milford Bank CT | 90.1% | 137% total 238%
|
🔒 | 0.36% |
| Webster Bank, National Association CT | 2.4% | 256% total 287%
|
🔒 | 0.84% |
| Liberty Bank CT | 10.9% | 256% total 271%
|
🔒 | 0.38% |
| Ascend Bank CT | 74.2% | 256% total 334%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| Ion Bank CT | 13.2% | 243% total 294%
|
🔒 | 1.30% |
| Essex Bank CT | 14.7% | 125% total 206%
|
🔒 | 1.41% |
| New Haven Bank CT | 100.0% | 227% total 427%
|
🔒 | 0.58% |
| Patriot Bank, National Association CT | 3.9% | 289% total 374%
|
🔒 | 2.34% |
| Bankwell Bank CT | 10.4% | 331% total 549%
|
🔒 | 0.66% |
Not counted — 8 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Bank Of America, National Association NC · Keybank National Association OH · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Td Bank, National Association DE · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Citizens Bank, National Association RI · Wilmington Trust, National Association DE
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 07-1 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2026) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 07-1, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
315 banks holding $263.8B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
No locally-headquartered banks in our FDIC data for this metro.
Do the banks lending in New Haven, CT have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
New Haven's banks look able to absorb the maturing CMBS wall: the wall-to-room ratio is 0.29, with CMBS maturing in the window of $45.7mm across this many loans: 3, set against local bank room, after those draws of $155.7mm from 9 qualifying local banks (1 excluded from the calculation). On the pre-draw basis the ratio is 0.13, against room, before committed draws of $355.9mm, with committed construction draws of $225.7mm; the 0.29 places New Haven at 126 out of this many metros ranked: 275, counting from the most strained, i.e. more strained than the median metro but still in the "slack" capacity band. Total CMBS balance here is $253.1mm, of which the distressed share of this metro's CMBS is 13.9%; note the room figure is a deposit-footprint proxy, and the wall covers only CMBS maturing within 24 months, so every ratio is an upper bound on what local banks would have to absorb.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $45.7mm
- … across this many loans
- 3
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $355.9mm
- Committed construction draws
- $225.7mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $155.7mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.29
- Rank, most strained
- 126
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 275
- … before committed draws
- 0.13
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 9
- … excluded from the calculation
- 1
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 13.9%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $253.1mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.24 across the ranked metros.
0.29 is ABOVE the median of 0.24, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
126 of 275, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.
The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros.
The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.
A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here.
Written from the figures above · CBSA 35300 · capacity_metro · last changed 30 Oct 2026
· Ask your own question →
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
14 local distress events in the past year (293 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-10-13
CLOSURE
New Haven
2026-09-23
CLOSURE
New Haven
2026-09-17
CLOSURE
New Haven
2026-09-15
CLOSURE
New Haven
2026-08-30
CLOSURE
New Haven
2026-08-18
CLOSURE
New Haven
2026-08-18
CLOSURE
New Haven
2026-06-24
CLOSURE
Milford
2026-04-28
CLOSURE
North Haven
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Hamden
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
East Haven
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Milford
2025-11-13
LAYOFF
293 jobs · Milford
What has actually happened on the ground in New Haven, CT recently?
Over the trailing 365 days, the vetted record for New Haven, CT shows 13 store closures and 1 WARN notice, with 293 jobs affected — a figure that is a floor, since notices stating no headcount count but contribute zero jobs. CRE bankruptcies register 0, though that figure is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 13
- WARN layoff notices
- 1
- Jobs on those notices
- 293
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 0
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — a court case counts in its filing district and an SEC 8-K in the filer's state, not where the property is, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Each court case is counted once even when both PACER and CourtListener carry it. A court case's state is its filing district; an SEC 8-K or news item carries the filer's state. Coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 35300 · geo_events · last changed 25 Oct 2026
· Ask your own question →
What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read — one page for every market we cover. The platform goes loan‑by‑loan inside it: which buildings carry the stress, when their debt comes due, and your own portfolio benchmarked against the market you are standing in.