Nashville carries $1.6 billion of CMBS across 67 loans, and the single largest claim on that book sits four years out: $439 million comes due in 2028, 28% of the total. The nearer term is lighter but not empty, with roughly $0.7 billion maturing inside 24 months. Credit quality in the filed record is holding — the distress rate reads 4.0% as of July 2026, flat, against a median debt-service coverage ratio of 1.72. Hospitality is the largest sector exposure at $0.5 billion, where the national distress rate runs 6.2%; retail follows at $0.3 billion against a 2.6% national mark.
The on-the-ground ledger tells a busier story than the loan tape. The metro logged 37 distress events over the past year — 14 store closures and 23 layoff notices, the latter accounting for 3,013 jobs. That activity has not yet translated into the serviced book, where the distressed balance stands at $0.1 billion and the bank picture is quiet: of 21 institutions tracked, one is flagged distressed and one carries an early-warning signal.
The backdrop is firm. Unemployment sits at 3.1% as of August 2026, up 0.1 point year over year. The 2030 maturity bucket, at $0.3 billion, currently shows no distress. For now the gap to watch is between a stable filed record and a steady drumbeat of closures and layoffs that has yet to reach the paper.
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN shows 3 legs elevated out of four, with 3 pairs with both legs elevated, 0 pairs with both legs quiet, 3 pairs where the legs disagree and 0 pairs that cannot be read because a leg is blind, over 6 pairs of legs compared. The elevated readings are 14 closures (1.44 per 100k jobs), a count-driven flag below the median of its own rate ranking; 19 notices (0.17%); and 6 loan records (3.96%), a floor read over part of the special-servicing rows. The bank leg reads $182.1mm (0.56%), not elevated, on dollars allocated by branch deposits rather than confirmed to this metro.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
14 closures | 1.44 per 100k jobs | 38 of 392 | 259 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
19 notices | 0.17% | 36 of 382 | 132 of 382 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$182.1mm | 0.56% | 119 of 393 | 294 of 393 | quiet
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
6 loan records | 3.96% | 29 of 335 | 81 of 335 | elevated
floor 2026-09-29
|
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Bank TN | 66.8% | 186% total 311%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Wilson Bank And Trust TN | 87.7% | 264% total 357%
|
🔒 | 0.39% |
| Firstbank TN | 37.9% | 269% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.97% |
| The Farmers Bank TN | 93.1% | 155% total 199%
|
🔒 | 0.20% |
| First Farmers And Merchants Bank TN | 73.9% | 216% total 255%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Citizens Bank TN | 61.4% | 151% total 201%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| Macon Bank And Trust Company TN | 91.1% | 187% total 265%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Federal Bank TN | 54.8% | 196% total 254%
|
🔒 | 0.62% |
| Wellworth Bank TN | 37.4% | 211% total 298%
|
🔒 | 2.20% |
| Tristar Bank TN | 81.2% | 188% total 280%
|
🔒 | 0.84% |
| Lineage Bank TN | 84.0% | 140% total 164%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Republic Bank & Trust Company KY | 1.9% | 125% total 186%
|
🔒 | 0.25% |
| First National Bank AR | 14.5% | 241% total 312%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Edmonton State Bank KY | 25.5% | 227% total 315%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Oakworth Capital Bank AL | 9.2% | 190% total 305%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| The First National Bank Of Middle Tennessee TN | 38.5% | 240% total 341%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| The Park National Bank OH | 1.5% | 197% total 270%
|
🔒 | 0.81% |
| First Financial Bank, National Association IN | 6.0% | 264% total 283%
|
🔒 | 0.81% |
| Peoples Bank TN | 9.2% | 107% total 248%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| Banktennessee TN | 24.6% | 236% total 286%
|
🔒 | 1.24% |
| Southern Bank Of Tennessee TN | 82.0% | 274% total 380%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Heritage Bank & Trust TN | 82.2% | 271% total 411%
|
🔒 | 0.33% |
| First Vision Bank Of Tennessee TN | 11.5% | 155% total 261%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Legends Bank TN | 23.9% | 275% total 433%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Traditions First Bank TN | 25.2% | 230% total 325%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| Tower Community Bank TN | 8.2% | 159% total 248%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Cb&s Bank, Inc. AL | 1.1% | 204% total 267%
|
🔒 | 0.94% |
| Homeland Community Bank TN | 6.0% | 132% total 229%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| First Commerce Bank TN | 5.3% | 271% total 375%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| Smartbank TN | 2.2% | 290% total 461%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| South Central Bank, Inc. KY | 1.1% | 284% total 387%
|
🔒 | 0.15% |
| Insbank TN | 100.0% | 313% total 396%
|
🔒 | 0.35% |
| Studio Bank TN | 100.0% | 312% total 415%
|
🔒 | 0.74% |
| First Freedom Bank TN | 65.5% | 337% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| C3bank, National Association CA | 8.8% | 361% total 403%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank Of Tennessee TN | 4.9% | 375% total 484%
|
🔒 | 0.28% |
| Commercial Bank TN | 2.6% | 307% total 480%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macon Bank And Trust Company | $220M | 187% total 265%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Wellworth Bank | $582M | 211% total 298%
|
2.20% | 🔒 |
| Firstbank | $7.1B | 269% total 386%
|
0.97% | 🔒 |
| Tristar Bank | $162M | 188% total 280%
|
0.84% | 🔒 |
| Studio Bank | $595M | 312% total 415%
|
0.74% | 🔒 |
| First Federal Bank | $293M | 196% total 254%
|
0.62% | 🔒 |
| Pinnacle Bank | $36.8B | 231% total 310%
|
0.54% | 🔒 |
| Wilson Bank And Trust | $2.6B | 264% total 357%
|
0.39% | 🔒 |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN looks adequately placed: the CMBS maturing in the window is $654.2mm across 23, against $1.70bn of local bank room before committed draws and $749.6mm after those draws, giving a wall-to-room ratio of 0.87 (0.38 before committed draws). That puts the metro at 59 out of 275 metros ranked, counting from the most strained. The reading rests on 37 qualifying local banks, with 13 excluded from the calculation, and the distressed share of this metro's CMBS is 4.0%; the capacity band is slack. The caveat is that room is a proxy built from deposit footprint rather than a measurement of lending, and the wall covers only CMBS maturing within 24 months, not the metro's whole maturity load.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | -12.0% | -1.2% | 95.8% | -3.3% | 2026-07-30 |
| MAA | -2.9% | -1.3% | 95.3% | -1.1% | 2026-07-29 |
| UDR | -2.3% | -0.3% | 95.2% | +0.6% | 2026-07-27 |
Over the trailing 365 days in the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro, the record shows 14 store closures and 19 WARN layoff notices affecting 1,973 jobs on those notices, with the jobs figure noted as a floor since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute zero jobs; cRE-related bankruptcies stand at 0, though that reading is a state proxy covering the states where the metro's collateral sits rather than a metro-native count, and coverage of court feeds widened partway through the period, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.