Denver-Aurora-Centennial carries $1.8 billion of CMBS across 96 loans, and the weight of the problem sits in one sector. Office is both the largest book at $493 million and the most distressed, with a distress rate of 29.2% against an 11.1% national mark — nearly three times the country's reading. By contrast, retail and self-storage show no distress in the filed record, and the metro's median DSCR holds at 1.73.
The filed record is easing. The distress rate stood at 17.4% as of July 2026, part of a falling trend rather than a rising one. That is an observation, not a forecast: the servicer-declared number has been moving lower even as the office book stays heavy.
The maturity calendar pushes the test out. The heaviest load lands in 2029 at $426 million, with another $0.6 billion coming due inside 24 months. Away from the loan tape, the past year brought 37 on-the-ground distress events — 21 store closures and 16 layoff notices totaling 1,896 jobs — against a metro unemployment rate of 4.6%, up 0.8 points year over year. None of the 12 banks tracked here carries distress, though three sit on early warning.
In Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO, all four signals read elevated, with 4 legs elevated out of four, and 6 pairs with both legs elevated against 0 pairs with both legs quiet and 0 pairs where the legs disagree. The store-closure leg shows 21 closures at 1.51 per 100k jobs — elevated by size, not by rate, so that reading is a statement about how big the metro is as much as about stress. Layoff notices (WARN) stand at 16 notices and 0.11%, bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line at $2.23bn and 10.67% (an allocated figure, since the call report cannot confirm the branch-deposit split), and securitized loans in special servicing at 9 loan records and 15.02% of the trust's slice read on this tape. No legs are blind and no pairs are unadjudicated because a side is blind, so the reading is complete across all four feeds.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
21 closures | 1.51 per 100k jobs | 26 of 392 | 252 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
16 notices | 0.11% | 44 of 382 | 164 of 382 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$2.23bn | 10.67% | 25 of 393 | 54 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
9 loan records | 15.02% | 20 of 335 | 33 of 335 | elevated 2026-09-29
|
In Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO, the elevated distress signals are bank CRE at risk at the 90th percentile at 13.9%, CMBS in special servicing at $270.0mm, or 15.0% as share of this metro's CMBS balance in special servicing, alongside 21 store closures and 16 WARN notices over the past year; bank CRE lent into this metro stands at $20.92bn, with CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line at $2.23bn and assets at those lenders at $0.00bn, while the running tally of legs agreeing is 4. What cannot be read from the figures provided is the share of bank CRE needing no branch-deposit allocation, since no usable reading for it is among the given numbers.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First National Bank SD | 15.3% | 148% total 188%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| Anb Bank CO | 26.6% | 166% total 242%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Alpine Bank CO | 7.9% | 190% total 259%
|
🔒 | 0.20% |
| Academy Bank, National Association MO | 16.6% | 228% total 294%
|
🔒 | 1.11% |
| Inbank NM | 32.5% | 224% total 355%
|
🔒 | 0.92% |
| Redstone Bank CO | 100.0% | 232% total 340%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Evergreen National Bank CO | 100.0% | 208% total 322%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bank Of Colorado CO | 12.1% | 292% total 356%
|
🔒 | 0.07% |
| 5star Bank CO | 18.9% | 228% total 299%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Farmers State Bank Of Calhan CO | 15.5% | 184% total 204%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| High Plains Bank CO | 9.3% | 197% total 377%
|
🔒 | 0.37% |
| Banc Of California CA | 0.8% | 291% total 334%
|
🔒 | 4.24% |
| Newbank NY | 0.3% | 164% total 395%
|
🔒 | 3.26% |
| Corefirst Bank & Trust KS | 1.3% | 274% total 401%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Western Trust Bank CO | 54.4% | 312% total 384%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Firstier Bank NE | 14.7% | 323% total 401%
|
🔒 | 3.81% |
| Pb&t Bank CO | 10.1% | 317% total 480%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Kirkpatrick Bank OK | 4.4% | 384% total 449%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| United Fidelity Bank, Fsb IN | 2.3% | 430% total 434%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| First Fidelity Bank OK | 1.4% | 308% total 462%
|
🔒 | 0.49% |
| United Business Bank CA | 0.3% | 402% total 555%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solera National Bank | $342M | 218% total 231%
|
1.63% | 🔒 |
| Native American Bank, National Association | $50M | 34% total 92%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Evergreen National Bank | $58M | 208% total 322%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| Colorado Federal Savings Bank | $483M | 176% total 176%
|
1.26% | 🔒 |
| North Valley Bank | $143M | 248% total 406%
|
0.87% | 🔒 |
| First American State Bank | $110M | 286% total 377%
|
0.43% | 🔒 |
| Nbh Bank | $4.1B | 215% total 306%
|
0.22% | 🔒 |
| Fortis Bank | $589M | 267% total 447%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO sits in the over capacity band, with a wall-to-room ratio of 2.08 (1.30 before committed draws) against $591.3mm of CMBS maturing in the window across this many loans — 36 — and $1.80bn of total CMBS balance here. The caution is that this reading is an exclusion artifact rather than evidence of scarce credit: 24 banks are excluded from the calculation while only 21 qualify locally, leaving local bank room, after those draws, of $283.8mm (down from $454.6mm before committed draws of $271.4mm), so the apparent strain reflects how few lenders this read can see in a metro served mainly by excluded institutions. The distressed share of this metro's CMBS is 15.0%, and its rank, most strained, is 37 out of 275 metros ranked.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | -3.5% | 95.6% | -5.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| CPT | -7.5% | -4.1% | 96.2% | -1.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | -9.8% | -5.9% | 96.8% | -7.7% | 2026-04-28 |
| MAA | -7.1% | -4.0% | 95.8% | -2.8% | 2026-07-29 |
Over the trailing days in the window, Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO recorded 16 WARN layoff notices affecting 1,896 jobs on those notices, alongside 21 store closures; cRE-related bankruptcies came in at 0, though that figure is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count.