Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · IL, IA
The read
$128M of CMBS across 9 loans. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2028 ($54M, 42% of the book). Distress is flat in the filed record — 0.0% as of 2026-07. 8 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (8,264 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
CMBS Distressed UPB
under $1M / 0.0%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$83M
Local Banks (stressed)
1 / 10
Bank Early-Warning
2 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
2
Layoff Notices (1y)
6 / 8,264 jobs
5.40% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
9 / $128M
Unemployment · Jul 2026
3.9%
-1.0pp yr
Office-Using Jobs · 2024
26,276
-1.5% yr
How much CRE distress is there in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL right now?
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL is showing no signs of CRE distress right now — all six of the paired readings agree the metro is quiet, with zero pairs elevated and zero pairs disagreeing. Store closures sit at 2 over the trailing year, a rate of 1.31 per 100,000 jobs; WARN layoff notices number 6, or 2.88% of the metro's employment. Bank CRE over the noncurrent line is $309.1mm of the $4456.7mm lent into the metro, a 6.94% share, while the securitized tape shows zero loans in special servicing (0.0% of the $140.0mm balance). Every leg is measured — none blind — so the quiet read carries full weight: no tenant failures at the door, no employer warnings above the filing threshold, no bank stress, and no trust paper in special servicing.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
2 closures | 1.31 per 100k jobs | 179 of 392 | 234 of 392 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
6 notices | 2.88% | 84 of 386 | 4 of 386 | quiet trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$309.1mm | 6.94% | 90 of 393 | 108 of 393 | quiet 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
0 loan records | 0% | 220 of 335 | 220 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
0 both elevated
6 both quiet
0 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
0 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 152928, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 182758, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 4456.7, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 140.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 19340 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, and which cannot be read?
In Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL, no distress signals are elevated, with the reading on convergence at 0 and an empty list for elevated signals. Bank CRE at risk is at the 90th percentile (9.3% of bank CRE) and distressed bank assets are 0.6 (bn), but distressed lender CRE is only $309.1mm and bank CRE allocations are 66.7%; CMBS special servicing is $0.0mm (0.0% of metro UPB), making the materiality "immaterial" with "little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals." The phase is "watch," reflecting "an isolated signal, not a convergence," and the phase sequence is "no reading," so a broader convergence signal cannot be read.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $0.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 0.0%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $4.46bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 9.3%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $309.1mm
- Assets at those lenders
- $0.60bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 66.7%
- Legs agreeing
- 0
- Phase
- watch
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 0
- Distressed banks
- 1
- Store closures (past year)
- 2
- WARN notices (past year)
- 6
an isolated signal, not a convergence
little to no distressed CRE dollars behind the signals
signals are present but neither credit-material nor ground-heavy
Written from the figures above · CBSA 19340 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
3.9%
-1.0pp yr
Last 24 months
3.8%5.4%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 152,928 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
Too few CMBS loans here (9) to say whether this metro's rate is explained by its property mix — that comparison needs 25.
No CMBS sector data for this metro.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$83M — 65% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is FLAT — 0.0% now (2026-07), +0.0pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $128M of the metro's $128M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$83M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 13 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$517M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.16× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$517M
After Committed Draws
$369M / −29%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.16×
Banks In Footprint
13 / 2 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $259M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $148M
comes out of the room above, leaving $369M,
with 2 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $112M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
1 of 13
is past it on drawn balances alone, and
3 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 13 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quad City Bank And Trust Company IA | 100.0% | 249% total 292%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Cbi Bank & Trust IA | 31.0% | 144% total 230%
|
🔒 | 1.70% |
| Bankorion IL | 100.0% | 184% total 239%
|
🔒 | 2.48% |
| Central Bank Illinois IL | 37.0% | 214% total 300%
|
🔒 | 1.18% |
| American Bank And Trust Company, National Association IA | 90.8% | 215% total 342%
|
🔒 | 0.75% |
| Union Federal Savings And Loan Association IL | 98.3% | 167% total 172%
|
🔒 | 1.17% |
| First National Bank SD | 9.7% | 120% total 145%
|
🔒 | 3.88% |
| Midwest Bank IL | 20.3% | 183% total 190%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| Time Bank IL | 25.4% | 246% total 312%
|
🔒 | 3.16% |
| Fortress Bank IL | 13.9% | 264% total 308%
|
🔒 | 1.97% |
| Morton Community Bank IL | 1.0% | 247% total 313%
|
🔒 | 0.69% |
| Blackhawk Bank & Trust IL | 100.0% | 302% total 382%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| Community State Bank IL | 52.9% | 319% total 479%
|
🔒 | 0.48% |
Not counted — 15 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · U.s. Bank National Association OH · Farmers National Bank IL · Tbk Bank, Ssb TX · First Central State Bank IA · Blue Grass Savings Bank IA · Peoples National Bank Of Kewanee IL · Farmers State Bank Of Western Illinois IL · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · State Bank Of Toulon IL · Liberty Trust & Savings Bank IA · First Trust And Savings Bank IA
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Old National Bank IN · Woodforest National Bank TX · Great Southern Bank MO
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peoples National Bank Of Kewanee | $87M | 83% total 128%
|
11.56% | 🔒 |
| Bankorion | $161M | 184% total 239%
|
2.48% | 🔒 |
| Central Bank Illinois | $468M | 214% total 300%
|
1.18% | 🔒 |
| American Bank And Trust Company, National Association | $179M | 215% total 342%
|
0.75% | 🔒 |
| Community State Bank | $190M | 319% total 479%
|
0.48% | 🔒 |
| Blackhawk Bank & Trust | $812M | 302% total 382%
|
0.08% | 🔒 |
| Quad City Bank And Trust Company | $1.0B | 249% total 292%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
With $82.5mm maturing across 5 loans against $368.9mm of room after committed draws — a wall-to-room ratio of 0.22 — Davenport-Moline-Rock Island reads as slack, and its banks appear well able to absorb the maturity: the ratio ranks it 131 of 270 counting from the most strained, and the reading shows 0.22 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro, though with distressed_share at 0.0% and only 13 qualifying banks against 3 excluded here, the capacity picture is favorable, supported by 0.16 on a before-committed-draws basis.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $82.5mm
- … across this many loans
- 5
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $516.6mm
- Committed construction draws
- $259.5mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $368.9mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.22
- Rank, most strained
- 131
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.16
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 13
- … excluded from the calculation
- 3
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 0.0%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $127.8mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
0.22 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
131 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 19340 · capacity_metro · last changed 13 Sep 2026
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On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
8 local distress events in the past year (8,264 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-08-24
LAYOFF
3000 jobs · Hillsdale
2026-08-17
LAYOFF
2500 jobs · Joslin
2026-08-14
LAYOFF
103 jobs · Hillsdale
2026-08-13
LAYOFF
2495 jobs · Hillsdale
2026-07-31
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2026-06-05
LAYOFF
98 jobs · Moline
2026-05-01
LAYOFF
68 jobs · Rock Island
2026-01-05
CLOSURE
Davenport
2025-12-31
CLOSURE
Moline
2025-12-23
BANKRUPTCY
CRE-linked bankruptcy
2025-07-30
LAYOFF
32 jobs · East Moline
2025-05-31
CLOSURE
East Moline
2024-06-23
CLOSURE
Davenport
2023-12-01
LAYOFF
215 jobs · Rock Island
2021-09-15
LAYOFF
80 jobs · Moline
What has actually happened on the ground in Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL recently?
In the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL metro, the last 365 days have seen 2 CRE bankruptcies (state-proxy count), 2 store closures, and 6 WARN notices, affecting a floor of 8,264 jobs. No additional figures on layoff timing or property-specific readings are available beyond these approved-event counts.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 2
- WARN layoff notices
- 6
- Jobs on those notices
- 8,264
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 2
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 19340 · geo_events · last changed 30 Aug 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.