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Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Birmingham, AL
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · AL
The read
$815M of CMBS across 33 loans. Distress is rising in the filed record — 12.9% as of 2026-07. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2027 ($261M, 32% of the book). Retail is the largest book ($362M, 0.0% distressed). 20 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (853 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Retail holds the line while the filed record turns up
Birmingham carries $815M of CMBS across 33 loans, a modest book by national standards, and the distress reading in the filed record is moving the wrong way — 12.9% as of July 2026 and rising. That is a status servicers have declared, not a projection, and it sits against a median DSCR of 1.96 that still reads comfortably on paper. The tension between a cushioned coverage figure and a climbing distress rate is the story here.
The near-term pressure point is 2027, when $261M comes due — 32% of the entire book landing in a single year. For now that maturity wall is clean on the filed record, but it concentrates refinancing risk into a narrow window. Retail, meanwhile, is the largest sector at $362M and carries a 0.0% distress rate, below the 2.6% national retail mark — a notable hold for a property type under scrutiny almost everywhere else.
On the ground, the signal is less benign: 22 distress events over the past year, split between 9 store closures and 13 layoff notices touching 853 jobs. Those are the real-economy tremors that precede what the servicer record eventually reflects, and in Birmingham they are running while the headline distress rate climbs.
Written 2026-10-27
CMBS Distressed UPB
$119M / 14.6%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$326M
Banks HQ’d Here (stressed)
2 / 12
Bank Early-Warning
2 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
7
Layoff Notices (1y)
13 / 853 jobs
0.20% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
33 / $815M
Unemployment · Aug 2026
3.4%
+0.6pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Birmingham, AL right now?
For Birmingham, AL, three of the four signals are elevated, with 3 of 6 pairs elevated on both legs, 3 pairs disagreeing, and none unreadable because a side is blind. Store closures read 7 closures, or 1.61 per 100k jobs — elevated on the count but below the median of its own rate ranking, a size filter rather than a per-unit stress signal. Layoff notices read 13 notices, or 0.16%, and bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line reads $1.12bn, or 7.31%, though the bank leg is an allocation by branch deposits that the call report cannot confirm. Securitized loans in special servicing read 3 loan records, or 14.6%, the one leg not elevated; where it diverges from closures the reading is retail is failing on buildings this tape does not hold. Judgment on how much distress that amounts to is left to the reader.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
7 closures | 1.61 per 100k jobs | 64 of 392 | 243 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
13 notices | 0.16% | 51 of 382 | 138 of 382 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$1.12bn | 7.31% | 38 of 393 | 93 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
3 loan records | 14.6% | 52 of 335 | 34 of 335 | quiet 2026-09-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
124 of 447 metros have at least one blind leg and 54 are blind on all four. Those 54 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.
Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes.
Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro.
A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason.
elevated by size, not by rate — store closures clear a flat count threshold while sitting below the median of their own rate ranking. Any reading that leans on them is a statement about how big this metro is.
Store closures: divided by 433,639 jobs
— all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading (trailing 365 days to today).
Layoff notices (WARN): divided by 549,096 employed
— employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted (trailing 365 days to today).
Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line: divided by $15,292.5 mm
— bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits (2026-06-30).
Securitized loans in special servicing: divided by $815.0 mm
— current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio (2026-09-29).
Written from the figures above · CBSA 13820 · stress_metro · last changed 01 Nov 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Aug 2026
3.4%
+0.6pp yr
Last 24 months
2.2%3.7%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 433,639 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 14.6% distressed where its own property mix predicts 4.9% — $79M more than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 0 of 1 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
+9.7pp
… and loan size held fixed
+10.0pp
the gap is still there with loan size held fixed too
… and vintage held fixed
+4.3pp
most of the gap goes away once vintage is held fixed too
The largest single contributor is Office: 6 loans, $192M, where the same type runs 11.0% elsewhere. Its own rate and its part of the gap are not shown: fewer than 3 loans are distressed here, too few for the share to be a rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$326M — 40% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is RISING — 12.9% now (2026-07), +1.3pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $750M of the metro's $815M; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$326M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 25 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$860M more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.38× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.13×.
Regional Bank Room
$860M
After Committed Draws
$521M / −39%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.38×
Banks In Footprint
25 / 1 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $422M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $339M
comes out of the room above, leaving $521M,
with 6 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $83M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 07-1 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
1 of 25
is past it on drawn balances alone, and
13 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 25 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakworth Capital Bank AL | 78.0% | 190% total 305%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Metro Bank AL | 75.0% | 187% total 222%
|
🔒 | 1.66% |
| Bryant Bank AL | 29.4% | 200% total 269%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| River Bank & Trust AL | 15.1% | 159% total 276%
|
🔒 | 0.31% |
| First National Banker's Bank LA | 29.1% | 189% total 233%
|
🔒 | 1.00% |
| Central State Bank AL | 96.4% | 233% total 373%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Evabank AL | 16.5% | 116% total 213%
|
🔒 | 0.35% |
| Peoples Bank Of Alabama AL | 25.0% | 215% total 299%
|
🔒 | 0.56% |
| Firstbank TN | 5.0% | 269% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.97% |
| First Us Bank AL | 42.5% | 249% total 296%
|
🔒 | 0.09% |
| Citizens Trust Bank GA | 11.5% | 110% total 177%
|
🔒 | 1.62% |
| Trustmark Bank MS | 1.5% | 237% total 298%
|
🔒 | 0.17% |
| Community Bank Of Mississippi MS | 3.5% | 202% total 310%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| Union State Bank AL | 73.2% | 227% total 312%
|
🔒 | 0.74% |
| Cb&s Bank, Inc. AL | 2.9% | 204% total 267%
|
🔒 | 0.94% |
| West Alabama Bank & Trust AL | 5.1% | 151% total 248%
|
🔒 | 0.11% |
| Marion Community Bank AL | 25.1% | 228% total 356%
|
🔒 | 2.39% |
| First Bank Of Alabama AL | 5.1% | 244% total 327%
|
🔒 | 4.32% |
| Noblebank & Trust AL | 9.3% | 230% total 329%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Bankfirst Financial Services MS | 1.1% | 219% total 317%
|
🔒 | 0.32% |
| Robertson Banking Company AL | 10.5% | 255% total 330%
|
🔒 | 0.01% |
| Peoples Independent Bank AL | 4.1% | 182% total 230%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Smartbank TN | 2.7% | 290% total 461%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Millennial Bank AL | 100.0% | 299% total 516%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Southpoint Bank AL | 59.8% | 350% total 534%
|
🔒 | 3.10% |
Not counted — 20 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Regions Bank AL · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Truist Bank NC · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · The Huntington National Bank OH · The Hometown Bank Of Alabama AL · Pinnacle Bank AL · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Traditions Bank AL · First Financial Bank AL · Fifth Third Bank, National Association OH
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Pinnacle Bank TN · First Horizon Bank TN · Renasant Bank MS · Southstate Bank, National Association FL · United Community Bank SC · Woodforest National Bank TX · Servisfirst Bank AL · Valley National Bank NJ
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 07-1 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2026) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 07-1, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
315 banks holding $263.8B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hometown Bank Of Alabama | $59M | 53% total 75%
|
4.75% | 🔒 |
| Southpoint Bank | $577M | 350% total 534%
|
3.10% | 🔒 |
| First Financial Bank | $69M | 88% total 250%
|
2.61% | 🔒 |
| Metro Bank | $389M | 187% total 222%
|
1.66% | 🔒 |
| Servisfirst Bank | $9.4B | 307% total 429%
|
1.45% | 🔒 |
| Regions Bank | $16.3B | 65% total 97%
|
1.14% | 🔒 |
| Union State Bank | $66M | 227% total 312%
|
0.74% | 🔒 |
| First Us Bank | $340M | 249% total 296%
|
0.09% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 07-1 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Birmingham, AL have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Yes — Birmingham's banks look adequately placed to absorb the maturing CMBS wall. $326.1mm comes due over the window across 10 loans, against $859.8mm of local bank room, or $521.0mm after $421.8mm of committed construction draws, giving a Wall-to-room ratio of 0.63 — a slack reading. Qualifying local banks number 25, with 9 excluded from the calculation, and the metro's distressed share of 14.6% is worth watching alongside the $815.2mm total CMBS balance here; across 275 metros ranked, Birmingham sits at 77, most strained, so the cushion is real but not deep.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $326.1mm
- … across this many loans
- 10
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $859.8mm
- Committed construction draws
- $421.8mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $521.0mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.63
- Rank, most strained
- 77
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 275
- … before committed draws
- 0.38
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 25
- … excluded from the calculation
- 9
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 14.6%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $815.2mm
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.24 across the ranked metros.
0.63 is ABOVE the median of 0.24, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
77 of 275, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.
The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros.
The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.
A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here.
Written from the figures above · CBSA 13820 · capacity_metro · last changed 30 Oct 2026
· Ask your own question →
Apartment-REIT Operating Read — same-store disclosures for this metro · as of 2026-07-29Set against the loan book →
Same-Store NOI
-0.1%
Same-Store Revenue
+0.8%
Occupancy
95.2%
Rent Growth
+1.9%
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAA | -0.1% | +0.8% | 95.2% | +1.9% | 2026-07-29 |
Same-store operating results disclosed by public apartment REITs (AVB · EQR · ESS · MAA · CPT · UDR) for this market in their quarterly supplements. Directional market context — an operating trend, not a Verstavo score.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
20 local distress events in the past year (853 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-08-27
CLOSURE
Trussville
2026-08-20
LAYOFF
50 jobs · Blountsville
2026-08-04
LAYOFF
47 jobs · Hoover
2026-08-03
CLOSURE
Birmingham
2026-06-18
CLOSURE
Birmingham
2026-05-31
CLOSURE
Leeds
2026-04-30
CLOSURE
Birmingham
2026-04-23
LAYOFF
113 jobs · Pelham
2026-04-23
LAYOFF
113 jobs · Pelham
2026-02-27
LAYOFF
151 jobs · Bessemer
2026-02-27
LAYOFF
151 jobs · Bessemer
2026-02-19
LAYOFF
10 jobs · Birmingham
2026-02-19
LAYOFF
10 jobs · Birmingham
2026-02-10
LAYOFF
44 jobs · Birmingham
2026-02-10
LAYOFF
54 jobs · Birmingham
What has actually happened on the ground in Birmingham, AL recently?
Over the most recent 365 days in Birmingham, AL, the record shows 7 store closures and 13 WARN layoff notices, with 853 jobs on those notices — a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but add nothing to that total. cRE-related bankruptcies in the relevant states stand at 0, though this is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 7
- WARN layoff notices
- 13
- Jobs on those notices
- 853
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 0
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — a court case counts in its filing district and an SEC 8-K in the filer's state, not where the property is, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Each court case is counted once even when both PACER and CourtListener carry it. A court case's state is its filing district; an SEC 8-K or news item carries the filer's state. Coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 13820 · geo_events · last changed 01 Nov 2026
· Ask your own question →
What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read — one page for every market we cover. The platform goes loan‑by‑loan inside it: which buildings carry the stress, when their debt comes due, and your own portfolio benchmarked against the market you are standing in.