Start free trial
No credit card required
Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · MD
The read
$1.7B of CMBS across 76 loans. Distress is rising in the filed record — 5.3% as of 2026-07. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2033 ($383M). Retail is the largest book ($506M, 0.0% distressed). 90 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (4,790 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Baltimore's filed distress is turning up, but the retail book is holding
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson carries $1.7 billion of CMBS across 76 loans, and the filed record has been rising: the distress rate stands at 5.3% as of July 2026. That is the number that matters here — a status the servicer has declared, not a projection — and the direction is up. Median DSCR across the book sits at 1.78, so the stress is not yet broad.
The largest book in the metro is retail, at $506 million, and it is clean — 0.0% distressed against a national retail rate of 2.6%. Office runs a smaller $0.3 billion book in a sector carrying an 11.1% national rate, and hospitality adds $0.2 billion against a 6.2% national mark. The heaviest maturity load does not land soon: $383 million comes due in 2033, with $0.3 billion in 2028 and smaller tranches in 2029 and 2031. That pushes the refinancing test well out past the near term.
The on-the-ground record tells a busier story than the loan tape. The metro logged 88 distress events over the past year — 30 store closures and 58 layoff notices totaling 3,932 jobs — even as the unemployment rate reads 3.9% as of August 2026, down 0.7 points year over year. For desks, that is the gap to watch: a filed distress rate that is climbing off a low base, a maturity wall that sits years out, and a steady drip of closures and layoffs underneath it.
Written 2026-10-27
CMBS Distressed UPB
$90M / 5.3%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$360M
Banks HQ’d Here (stressed)
1 / 12
Bank Early-Warning
3 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
30
Layoff Notices (1y)
60 / 4,790 jobs
0.43% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
76 / $1.7B
Unemployment · Aug 2026
3.9%
-0.7pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD right now?
In Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD, three of the four legs are elevated: store closures at 30 closures and 2.68 per 100k jobs, layoff notices (WARN) at 69 notices and 0.34%, and bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line at $3.53bn and 17.95%, while securitized loans in special servicing sit at 4 loan records and 5.28% and do not read as elevated. Across pairs of legs compared, pairs with both legs elevated is 3 and pairs where the legs disagree is 3, including the reading that retail is failing on buildings this tape does not hold, that employers are cutting and the securitized book has not moved, and that the lenders here are stressed on a book the tape cannot see; the bank figure carries the caveat that its dollars are largely allocated by branch deposits the call report cannot confirm.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
30 closures | 2.68 per 100k jobs | 17 of 392 | 132 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
69 notices | 0.34% | 11 of 382 | 58 of 382 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.53bn | 17.95% | 16 of 393 | 24 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
4 loan records | 5.28% | 42 of 335 | 72 of 335 | quiet 2026-09-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
124 of 447 metros have at least one blind leg and 54 are blind on all four. Those 54 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.
Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes.
Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro.
A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason.
Store closures: divided by 1,119,455 jobs
— all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading (trailing 365 days to today).
Layoff notices (WARN): divided by 1,445,060 employed
— employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted (trailing 365 days to today).
Bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line: divided by $19,680.6 mm
— bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits (2026-06-30).
Securitized loans in special servicing: divided by $1,706.0 mm
— current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio (2026-09-29).
Written from the figures above · CBSA 12580 · stress_metro · last changed 01 Nov 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Aug 2026
3.9%
-0.7pp yr
Last 24 months
3.0%4.8%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 1,119,455 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 5.3% distressed where its own property mix predicts 5.5% — $4M less than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 0 of 1 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
-0.2pp
… and loan size held fixed
-0.6pp
there is no gap here to explain
… and vintage held fixed
+0.7pp
there is no gap here to explain
The largest single contributor is Hospitality: 13 loans, $227M, where the same type runs 6.1% elsewhere. Its own rate and its part of the gap are not shown: fewer than 3 loans are distressed here, too few for the share to be a rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$360M — 21% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is RISING — 5.3% now (2026-07), +1.1pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $1.1B of the metro's $1.7B; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$360M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 16 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$1.3B more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.27× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.13×.
Regional Bank Room
$1.3B
After Committed Draws
$983M / −26%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.27×
Banks In Footprint
16 / 2 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $654M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $343M
comes out of the room above, leaving $983M,
with 7 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $311M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 07-1 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
4 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 16 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosedale Bank MD | 100.0% | 142% total 163%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Eastern Savings Bank, Fsb MD | 100.0% | 102% total 148%
|
🔒 | 2.02% |
| Fulton Bank, National Association PA | 4.5% | 184% total 283%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| The Queenstown Bank Of Maryland MD | 80.0% | 127% total 202%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Arundel Bank MD | 100.0% | 140% total 145%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Atlantic Union Bank VA | 6.7% | 264% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.42% |
| Bayvanguard Bank MD | 56.5% | 215% total 264%
|
🔒 | 0.29% |
| Harford Bank MD | 91.7% | 235% total 419%
|
🔒 | 1.52% |
| The Harbor Bank Of Maryland MD | 84.4% | 226% total 313%
|
🔒 | 2.37% |
| Acnb Bank PA | 8.8% | 232% total 333%
|
🔒 | 0.21% |
| Firstrust Savings Bank PA | 1.1% | 245% total 306%
|
🔒 | 0.74% |
| Univest Bank And Trust Co. PA | 0.8% | 264% total 373%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| Fvcbank VA | 1.8% | 284% total 354%
|
🔒 | 0.96% |
| Orrstown Bank PA | 14.7% | 300% total 415%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank MD | 100.0% | 379% total 557%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Shore United Bank, National Association MD | 29.3% | 326% total 436%
|
🔒 | 1.78% |
Not counted — 23 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Bank Of America, National Association NC · Truist Bank NC · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Capital One, National Association VA · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Td Bank, National Association DE · The Bank Of Glen Burnie MD · First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company NC · Jarrettsville Federal Savings And Loan Association MD · The Glen Burnie Mutual Savings Bank MD · Stifel Trust Company, National Association MO · Wilmington Trust, National Association DE
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Manufacturers And Traders Trust Company NY · First National Bank Of Pennsylvania PA · Wesbanco Bank, Inc. WV · Pinnacle Bank TN · Woori America Bank NY · Woodforest National Bank TX · United Bank VA · Capital Bank, National Association MD · Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company VA
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
Cfg Bank MD
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 07-1 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2026) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 07-1, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
315 banks holding $263.8B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cfg Bank | $2.9B | 239% total 404%
|
4.83% | 🔒 |
| The Harbor Bank Of Maryland | $149M | 226% total 313%
|
2.37% | 🔒 |
| Eastern Savings Bank, Fsb | $161M | 102% total 148%
|
2.02% | 🔒 |
| Harford Bank | $343M | 235% total 419%
|
1.52% | 🔒 |
| Bayvanguard Bank | $414M | 215% total 264%
|
0.29% | 🔒 |
| The Bank Of Glen Burnie | $66M | 78% total 171%
|
0.15% | 🔒 |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank | $502M | 379% total 557%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| The Queenstown Bank Of Maryland | $185M | 127% total 202%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 07-1 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Yes — Baltimore-Columbia-Towson reads as having ample local bank capacity, with the wall-to-room ratio at 0.37 against a capacity band of slack. The CMBS maturing in the window is $359.7mm across this many loans 20, while local bank room, after those draws, is $983.3mm, down from local bank room, before committed draws of $1.33bn once committed construction draws of $653.9mm are deducted; that room-to-wall comparison is a proxy only, since deposit footprint stands in for lending footprint. Qualifying local banks number 16, with 10 excluded from the calculation, and the metro ranks 106 out of this many metros ranked 275 counting from the most strained, so it is less strained than the typical ranked metro even though 0.37 sits above the median. The distressed share of this metro's CMBS is 5.3%, on a total CMBS balance here of $1.71bn; this measures the CMBS wall only, not the metro's whole maturity load.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $359.7mm
- … across this many loans
- 20
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $1.33bn
- Committed construction draws
- $653.9mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $983.3mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.37
- Rank, most strained
- 106
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 275
- … before committed draws
- 0.27
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 16
- … excluded from the calculation
- 10
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 5.3%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $1.71bn
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.24 across the ranked metros.
0.37 is ABOVE the median of 0.24, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
106 of 275, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.
The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros.
The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.
A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here.
Written from the figures above · CBSA 12580 · capacity_metro · last changed 30 Oct 2026
· Ask your own question →
Apartment-REIT Operating Read — same-store disclosures for this metro · as of 2026-07-27Set against the loan book →
Same-Store NOI
+0.7%
Same-Store Revenue
+1.8%
Occupancy
95.7%
Rent Growth
+1.6%
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | +0.5% | 94.5% | +0.7% | 2026-02-05 |
| UDR | +0.7% | +3.1% | 96.9% | +2.5% | 2026-07-27 |
Same-store operating results disclosed by public apartment REITs (AVB · EQR · ESS · MAA · CPT · UDR) for this market in their quarterly supplements. Directional market context — an operating trend, not a Verstavo score.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
90 local distress events in the past year (4,790 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Scheduled · Rosedale
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Scheduled · Cockeysville
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Scheduled · Westminster
2026-10-23
LAYOFF
45 jobs
2026-10-23
LAYOFF
46 jobs
2026-10-19
LAYOFF
803 jobs
2026-10-16
LAYOFF
26 jobs
2026-10-16
LAYOFF
72 jobs
2026-10-07
CLOSURE
Baltimore
2026-10-07
LAYOFF
39 jobs
2026-10-06
LAYOFF
Baltimore
2026-10-05
LAYOFF
14 jobs
2026-10-01
LAYOFF
174 jobs
2026-09-30
LAYOFF
47 jobs · Baltimore
2026-09-28
LAYOFF
12 jobs
What has actually happened on the ground in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD recently?
Over the most recent 365 days in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD, the vetted figures show 30 store closures and 61 WARN layoff notices, with jobs on those notices at 4,808 — a floor, since notices stating no headcount count but add no jobs. cRE-related bankruptcies came to 0, though that figure is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count, so it should be read with caution.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 30
- WARN layoff notices
- 61
- Jobs on those notices
- 4,808
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 0
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — a court case counts in its filing district and an SEC 8-K in the filer's state, not where the property is, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Each court case is counted once even when both PACER and CourtListener carry it. A court case's state is its filing district; an SEC 8-K or news item carries the filer's state. Coverage widened to both court feeds on 2026-09-16, so counts before and after that date are not comparable.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 12580 · geo_events · last changed 01 Nov 2026
· Ask your own question →
What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read — one page for every market we cover. The platform goes loan‑by‑loan inside it: which buildings carry the stress, when their debt comes due, and your own portfolio benchmarked against the market you are standing in.