Commercial Real Estate Credit —
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
The state of disclosed CRE credit in this market · MD
The read
$1.7B of CMBS across 76 loans. Retail is the largest book ($506M) but runs below its national distress rate (0.0% vs 2.7%); the elevated risk is in Hospitality (18.7%, 3× national). Distress is rising in the filed record — 5.3% as of 2026-07. The heaviest maturity load lands in 2033 ($383M). 92 on-the-ground distress events in the past year (3,926 jobs).
Overview
CMBS
Submarkets
Local Banks
Jobs & Demand
On The Ground
Loading map…
The CMBS properties our stress model flags here, plus recent store closures and layoffs. Stressed is a wider net than distressed — the distressed figure above counts only loans already in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, while these dots also include performing loans facing maturity or coverage pressure. Property dots sit at the center of their ZIP code, not the building — they show where stress concentrates, not which asset. Closures and layoffs are pinned to address where we have it. Open any dot to the building and the loan behind it →
Retail Holds, but Hospitality Runs Hot in Baltimore
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson carries $1.7 billion of CMBS across 76 loans, and the headline is not where the biggest book sits. Retail is the largest exposure at $506 million, yet it shows no distress at all — 0.0% against a 2.7% national rate. The pressure is concentrated in the smaller, higher-beta corners of the map: Hospitality, at 18.7%, runs roughly three times the national hospitality rate, and Office, at 14.0%, sits above its own national benchmark of 11.3%.
The filed record has been rising, reaching 5.3% as of July 2026. That is still a manageable overall number for a book with a 1.77 median DSCR, but the trend line is pointed up rather than down. The maturity schedule adds context: the heaviest load lands in 2033, at $383 million, currently clean; the nearer-dated 2028 vintage, by contrast, carries a 15.6% distress rate against a smaller balance.
On the ground, the metro logged 92 distress events over the past year — 36 store closures and 56 layoff notices totaling 3,926 jobs — even as the unemployment rate, at 4.2% in July 2026, ticked down two-tenths year over year. For desks, the read is straightforward: the retail book is doing the heavy lifting quietly, while the risk to watch is the concentrated hospitality and office exposure and a distress rate that keeps climbing in the record.
CMBS Distressed UPB
$90M / 5.3%
in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent
CMBS Maturing ≤ 24mo
$360M
Local Banks (stressed)
1 / 12
Bank Early-Warning
3 flagged
Store Closures (1y)
36
Layoff Notices (1y)
56 / 3,926 jobs
0.35% of metro employment
CMBS Loans / UPB
76 / $1.7B
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.2%
-0.2pp yr
How much CRE distress is there in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD right now?
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD shows clear commercial real estate distress, with 3 of 4 signals elevated and 3 of 6 pairs both elevated. Store closures are elevated at 30 closures (2.68 per 100k jobs, rank 14th by count but 106th by rate), and layoff notices are also elevated at 68 notices (0.29% of employment, rank 13th by count but 76th by rate). Bank CRE distress is elevated at $3,408.7mm noncurrent (17.79% of allocated CRE, rank 18th by count, 22nd by rate), though only 24.1% of these dollars sit at single-metro lenders and the rest is allocated by branch deposits. The CMBS leg, however, is not elevated, with 4 securitized loans in special servicing (5.57% of the tape's balance, rank 42nd). The three disagreements point to retail failing on buildings the tape doesn't hold — consistent with the mom-and-pop closure signature below WARN's filing threshold — while lenders carry stress on a book the securitized tape cannot see, and employers are cutting jobs while the securitized book hasn't moved. No figure is unavailable; all four legs are measured, though the bank leg's allocation caveat should be noted.
The figures behind this answer
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
30 closures | 2.68 per 100k jobs | 14 of 392 | 106 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
68 notices | 0.29% | 13 of 386 | 76 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.41bn | 17.79% | 18 of 393 | 22 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
4 loan records | 5.57% | 42 of 335 | 68 of 335 | quiet 2026-07-29
|
6 pairs compared
3 both elevated
0 both quiet
3 disagreeing
0 unreadable — a side is blind
3 of four legs elevated
one metro, four independent feeds, each on its own denominator
{'coverage': "114 of 441 metros have at least one blind leg and 48 are blind on all four. Those 48 are the same metros the board's map cannot place and the metro resolver cannot name: one ZIP-to-CBSA crosswalk boundary, showing up three ways.", 'a_count_ranks_by_size': 'Elevation is computed on the COUNT, over a flat threshold, which is a size filter. New York is 2nd of 392 by store closures and 264th of the same 392 by closures per job — both true, and which one you lead with decides what the reader believes. Every leg carries both ranks over ONE population; quote the rate beside the count.', 'disagreement_is_not_severity': 'Where two legs disagree, that is usually a fact about WHICH mechanism is running, not an error in either feed and not a worse metro. The six pairs read different populations, and each note is a STRUCTURAL prior about those populations — nothing here measures a lead or a lag between two legs, so never report one as timing.', 'a_blind_leg_is_not_a_quiet_one': "A leg with no denominator, or whose numerator cannot be measured, reads LOW and means nothing. Each leg publishes a measurement state (allocated, floor, measured, no denominator, no rate, not measurable) for that reason. Never report a blind leg as 'no distress'."}
{'leg': 'closures', 'unit': 'jobs', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 1119455, 'measures': 'store closures', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': "all metro jobs, QCEW annual average — a SIZE normaliser, not a matched population: the feed spans retail, food service and pharmacy and no single QCEW sector covers it. The MATCHED read sits beside it as this leg's second reading"}
{'leg': 'warn', 'unit': 'employed', 'as_of': 'trailing 365 days to today', 'value': 1447490, 'measures': 'layoff notices (WARN)', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'window', 'what_it_is': 'employed persons, BLS LAUS, not seasonally adjusted'}
{'leg': 'bank', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-03-31', 'value': 19158.6, 'measures': 'bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': 'bank CRE allocated to this metro by branch deposits'}
{'leg': 'cmbs', 'unit': '$mm', 'as_of': '2026-07-29', 'value': 1617.0, 'measures': 'securitized loans in special servicing', 'available': True, 'as_of_kind': 'stamp', 'what_it_is': "current balance on the non-pari-passu rows of this tape — the trust's slice, not the whole loan, on both sides of the ratio"}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 12580 · stress_metro · last changed 28 Aug 2026
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Which distress signals are elevated in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD, and which cannot be read?
In Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE, store closures, and WARN notices. Bank distressed CRE is elevated with the 90th percentile of bank CRE at risk at 27.8%, translating to $3.41bn in distressed lender CRE. Ground-level signals are also firing: 30 store closures and 68 WARN notices in the past year. The CMBS reading for special servicing shows $90.0mm in UPB at a 5.6% share of metro UPB, but the bank CRE exposure share is 24.1% of the bank’s total CRE allocation of $19.16bn — all cited as stated. The metro-level overall distress phase is confirmed at “peak”, with a “loaded” costume test and “modest” materiality. The figure for distressed bank assets is available at $5.7bn (stated), but the count of CMBS loans in special servicing (4) and distressed banks (1) are provided as counts, not percentages; the reading for any metric not listed above (e.g., office vacancy or rent growth) is unavailable.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS in special servicing
- $90.0mm
- … as a share of this metro's CMBS balance
- 5.6%
- Bank CRE lent into this metro
- $19.16bn
- … at risk at the 90th percentile
- 27.8%
- CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line
- $3.41bn
- Assets at those lenders
- $5.70bn
- … share needing no branch-deposit allocation
- 24.1%
- Signals reading elevated
- bank CRE over the noncurrent line, store closures, WARN layoff notices
- Legs agreeing
- 3
- Phase
- peak
- CMBS loans in special servicing
- 4
- Distressed banks
- 1
- Store closures (past year)
- 30
- WARN notices (past year)
- 68
leading (real-economy) and realized (credit) signals are firing together
tens of millions of distressed CRE exposure
credit distress AND ground-level distress, with real dollars behind the credit side
Written from the figures above · CBSA 12580 · geo_metro_signals · last changed 27 Aug 2026
· Ask your own question →
Jobs & Demand — the labor market under the collateralWatch it change →
Every other zone on this page reads the credit — what the loan is doing.
This one reads the demand underneath it. Office jobs pay office rent;
office rent services the office loan. When the jobs go, the DSCR follows — but not for another year or two.
That lag is the whole point of looking here.
Unemployment · Jul 2026
4.2%
-0.2pp yr
Last 24 months
3.0%4.8%
Monthly metro unemployment (BLS LAUS) — the freshest labor signal there is,
about six weeks behind. Read the direction, not the level: a 4% metro that is rising and a 6% metro that is
falling are not telling you the same thing.
Jobs by CRE-relevant sector · 2024
Annual employment by sector (BLS QCEW, 2024; 1,119,455 jobs in the metro).
QCEW lags — it is the structural read, not the current one, and we pair it with the monthly unemployment above on purpose.
Office-using sums five supersectors; where BLS withholds any one of them for
disclosure, we show nothing rather than a number we know is too low — so a missing sector here means
“suppressed at the source,” not “zero.”
Sector Heat — CMBS distress rate by property type (metro vs national)See the loans behind the bar →
This metro's CMBS runs 5.3% distressed where its own property mix predicts 5.5% — $4M less than this book would carry at the rate each property type runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted and excluding this metro. The gap is measured; the cause is not. 2 of 3 property types here run a higher distress rate than the national average for that type (the tick on each bar).
Elimination — does the gap survive a control?
Each row re-prices this metro's book on a finer cell — its own property types, then those types split by loan size, then by vintage — always at the rate that cell runs elsewhere in the country, dollar-weighted. A gap that shrinks toward zero is explained by the control; one that stays has ruled it out. What is measured is what survives, not a cause.
property mix alone
-0.2pp
… and loan size held fixed
-0.5pp
there is no gap here to explain
… and vintage held fixed
+0.8pp
there is no gap here to explain
The largest single contributor is Hospitality: 13 loans, $228M, running 18.7% where the same type runs 6.0% elsewhere — worth 1.7pp of this metro's own rate.
Maturity Wall — CMBS coming due by year, distress within eachSee what’s maturing →
$360M — 21% of the metro's balance — matures within two years; the red slice of each bar is already distressed.
Distress Trend — is this market turning?Track it quarter by quarter →
Realized distress is RISING — 5.3% now (2026-07), +1.2pp over the year.
Same definition as the cards above — distressed means in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, dollar-weighted — on a different clock. The cards are today’s tape; this is the disclosed history panel, quarter by quarter, so you can read direction rather than level. Trusts file monthly, so a quarter is usually well covered within weeks of opening and the newest one shown is normally the current one; it is withheld only when its filed book falls below 60% of recent quarters.
Share of the metro’s CMBS in special servicing or 60+ days delinquent, by quarter — a firmer, backward-looking read. A loan under 1.0x DSCR that is still paying is not counted here.
Submarket Heat — where in the metro the distress sitsOpen the submarket →
The top three submarkets hold $1.1B of the metro's $1.7B; each bar's colored share is its distress rate.
Bank Door — what the local bank sector could absorbSee it on every loan’s exit read →
$360M of CMBS matures here within two years.
The 16 regional and local banks that gather deposits here could write roughly
$1.3B more CRE before the 300% supervisory line, so the maturing balance is
0.27× that room.
The median metro sits at 0.12×.
Regional Bank Room
$1.3B
After Committed Draws
$988M / −26%
Maturing ÷ Room
0.27×
Banks In Footprint
16 / 2 at the line
The room above is already part-sold. Construction lending is a promise drawn
down over two or three years, and the undrawn part is an obligation the bank cannot decline while the borrower performs
— every one of those dollars lands in the same CRE book the 300% line governs. These banks
have $647M of construction committed and not yet
advanced, of which $340M
comes out of the room above, leaving $988M,
with 7 banks
whose entire remaining room is spoken for.
A bank with no room contributes zero here, never a negative one — capacity does not net
across balance sheets — so $306M of what has
been promised is not deducted at all, because there is nothing left to deduct it from. On today’s
capital that is funding already contracted which would cross the line as it draws.
SR 06-26 draws a second line at 100% of capital for construction and land:
4 more cross it
once their own commitments fund.
Counted — 16 regional & local CRE lenders
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosedale Bank MD | 100.0% | 142% total 163%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Eastern Savings Bank, Fsb MD | 100.0% | 102% total 148%
|
🔒 | 2.02% |
| Fulton Bank, National Association PA | 4.6% | 184% total 283%
|
🔒 | 0.79% |
| The Queenstown Bank Of Maryland MD | 80.9% | 127% total 202%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Arundel Bank MD | 100.0% | 140% total 145%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Atlantic Union Bank VA | 6.5% | 264% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.42% |
| Bayvanguard Bank MD | 56.9% | 215% total 264%
|
🔒 | 0.29% |
| Harford Bank MD | 90.4% | 235% total 419%
|
🔒 | 1.52% |
| The Harbor Bank Of Maryland MD | 85.5% | 226% total 313%
|
🔒 | 2.37% |
| Acnb Bank PA | 8.6% | 232% total 333%
|
🔒 | 0.21% |
| Firstrust Savings Bank PA | 1.2% | 245% total 306%
|
🔒 | 0.74% |
| Univest Bank And Trust Co. PA | 0.5% | 264% total 373%
|
🔒 | 0.22% |
| Fvcbank VA | 1.8% | 284% total 354%
|
🔒 | 0.96% |
| Orrstown Bank PA | 15.2% | 300% total 415%
|
🔒 | 0.43% |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank MD | 100.0% | 379% total 557%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Shore United Bank, National Association MD | 28.7% | 326% total 436%
|
🔒 | 1.78% |
Not counted — 23 banks with deposits here
These hold deposits in this metro but are left out of the capacity above, because for them deposit location stops indicating where they lend — or they do not lend CRE at all. Real money that could refinance here is deliberately not counted.
no CRE book — CRE under 100% of capital — not a CRE lender
Bank Of America, National Association NC · Pnc Bank, National Association DE · Truist Bank NC · Wells Fargo Bank, National Association SD · Capital One, National Association VA · Jpmorgan Chase Bank, National Association OH · Td Bank, National Association DE · The Bank Of Glen Burnie MD · First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company NC · Jarrettsville Federal Savings And Loan Association MD · The Glen Burnie Mutual Savings Bank MD · Stifel Trust Company, National Association MO · Wilmington Trust, National Association DE · Cibc National Trust Company GA
national — operates in more than 5 states, so deposits stop indicating where it lends
Manufacturers And Traders Trust Company NY · First National Bank Of Pennsylvania PA · Wesbanco Bank, Inc. WV · Pinnacle Bank TN · Woori America Bank NY · Woodforest National Bank TX · United Bank VA · Capital Bank, National Association MD
booked here — books nearly all deposits to one branch — a charter address, not a footprint
Cfg Bank MD
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
How to read this. It is not whether any particular loan can refinance — a borrower also reaches
national banks, life companies, agencies and debt funds. It is how much of this metro’s maturing volume the local
bank sector could absorb if it were the only door.
Banks are placed by deposit share (FDIC Summary of Deposits, June 2025) — a proxy for
where they lend, not a measurement; call reports carry no collateral geography. Room = 3× total risk-based capital less CRE held
(SR 06-26, the capital base the rule names — not book equity), from Q2 2026 call reports, apportioned by that share.
Committed construction comes from FFIEC Schedule RC-L as filed at 2026-06-30 —
the undrawn half of loans already written, which the balance sheet above does not show.
Banks in more than 5 states, single-branch bookers and banks that do not lend CRE are excluded —
313 banks holding $268.2B of national capacity not counted here.
Local Lenders — banks headquartered here, worst CRE noncurrent firstUnlock each bank’s early-warning flag →
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cfg Bank | $2.9B | 239% total 404%
|
4.83% | 🔒 |
| The Harbor Bank Of Maryland | $149M | 226% total 313%
|
2.37% | 🔒 |
| Eastern Savings Bank, Fsb | $161M | 102% total 148%
|
2.02% | 🔒 |
| Harford Bank | $343M | 235% total 419%
|
1.52% | 🔒 |
| Bayvanguard Bank | $414M | 215% total 264%
|
0.29% | 🔒 |
| The Bank Of Glen Burnie | $66M | 78% total 171%
|
0.15% | 🔒 |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank | $502M | 379% total 557%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
| The Queenstown Bank Of Maryland | $185M | 127% total 202%
|
0.00% | 🔒 |
* Two ratios, two perimeters.
The large figure is supervisory CRE over total risk-based capital —
construction, multifamily and non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential. That is the book SR 06-26 draws its
300% line against, and it is what the red coloring and the room contributed are both measured on.
Total beneath it adds owner-occupied CRE — lending to a business on
its own premises — which the guidance deliberately leaves out. A bank can sit well above 300% on total CRE and
still be inside the line, with real room to lend; both are shown so the gap is visible rather than surprising.
Banks are matched to their HQ metro (a proxy for footprint). Noncurrent CRE = CRE-balance-weighted blend of multifamily / nonresidential / construction noncurrent (distress already arrived). Early Warning is a validated leading signal — the bank’s 30-89 early-delinquency rank among all CRE lenders this quarter, which has predicted ~2.3× forward CRE distress. Per-bank flags are on a plan.
Do the banks lending in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD have the capacity to refinance its maturing CRE?
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD sits in the slack band: $360.0mm of CMBS maturing within 24 months across 20 maturing_loans against $988.0mm of room_after_committed and $1.33bn room_before_committed, giving a wall_to_room of 0.36 and a wall_to_room_before_committed_draws of 0.27. That places the metro at rank_most_strained 99 of 270, counting from the most strained — so its wall consumes more of local bank capacity than the typical ranked metro, since 0.36 is ABOVE the median of 0.20. Capacity here is measured across 16 banks_qualifying, with 9 banks_excluded_here; explained_by_exclusion is false, and the exclusion check finds no artifact, so the reading stands on its own rather than reflecting banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend.
The figures behind this answer
- CMBS maturing in the window
- $360.0mm
- … across this many loans
- 20
- Local bank room, before committed draws
- $1.33bn
- Committed construction draws
- $646.6mm
- Local bank room, after those draws
- $988.0mm
- Wall-to-room ratio
- 0.36
- Rank, most strained
- 99
- … out of this many metros ranked
- 270
- … before committed draws
- 0.27
- Population ranked against
- CMBS maturing within 24 months against regional/community bank room in this metro
- Qualifying local banks
- 16
- … excluded from the calculation
- 9
- Distressed share of this metro's CMBS
- 5.3%
- Total CMBS balance here
- $1.71bn
- Capacity band
- slack
Compared against a median wall-to-room ratio of
0.20 across the ranked metros.
0.36 is ABOVE the median of 0.20, so this metro is MORE strained than the typical ranked metro
99 of 270, counting from the MOST strained — a LOWER rank number means MORE strain
{'room_is_a_proxy': 'Room is what regional and community banks could still write before the SR 06-26 concentration line, after deducting construction draws already committed. Deposit footprint is a proxy for lending footprint, not a measurement of it.', 'ratio_is_not_size': 'The most extreme ratios belong to the smallest metros. Read maturing_bal_mm beside the ratio — the map sizes bubbles by the wall, not the strain, for exactly this reason.', 'wall_is_cmbs_only': "The wall is the CMBS balance maturing within 24 months — the maturing debt this platform can see, not the metro's whole maturity load. Every ratio is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb.", 'exclusion_artifact': 'A high ratio is as often an exclusion artifact as a credit event. Banks whose deposits do not indicate where they lend (nationals, card and charter banks) are excluded from the room, so a metro served mainly by those reads strained while its credit is simply invisible here. Check banks_qualifying against banks_excluded_here, and explained_by_exclusion.'}
Written from the figures above · CBSA 12580 · capacity_metro · last changed 13 Sep 2026
· Ask your own question →
Apartment-REIT Operating Read — same-store disclosures for this metro · as of 2026-07-27Set against the loan book →
Same-Store NOI
+0.7%
Same-Store Revenue
+1.8%
Occupancy
95.7%
Rent Growth
+1.6%
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVB | — | +0.5% | 94.5% | +0.7% | 2026-02-05 |
| UDR | +0.7% | +3.1% | 96.9% | +2.5% | 2026-07-27 |
Same-store operating results disclosed by public apartment REITs (AVB · EQR · ESS · MAA · CPT · UDR) for this market in their quarterly supplements. Directional market context — an operating trend, not a Verstavo score.
On The Ground — recent closures, layoffs & CRE bankruptciesTie these events to loans →
92 local distress events in the past year (3,926 jobs) — store closures, layoffs, and commercial real estate bankruptcies near this metro's collateral.
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Owings Mills
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Columbia
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Cockeysville
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Catonsville
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Rosedale
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Cockeysville
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Westminster
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Overlea
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Columbia
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Catonsville
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Owings Mills
2026-12-31
CLOSURE
Westminster
2026-08-31
LAYOFF
136 jobs
2026-08-28
LAYOFF
Baltimore
2026-08-25
LAYOFF
20 jobs
What has actually happened on the ground in Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD recently?
Over the trailing 365 days, the on-the-ground read for Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD shows 36 store closures and 57 WARN notices affecting 3,944 jobs, alongside 1 CRE-likely bankruptcy filing — though that last figure is a STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count. Note that the job-loss figure is a floor, since jobs_affected is nullable and notices stating no headcount contribute 0 jobs.
The figures behind this answer
- Store closures
- 36
- WARN layoff notices
- 57
- Jobs on those notices
- 3,944
- CRE-related bankruptcies
- 1
- Window, in days
- 365
STATE PROXY — bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location, so this counts CRE-likely filings in the states this metro's collateral sits in. It is not a metro-native count.
affected_employees is nullable — notices that state no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs, so this is a floor.
Closures are matched ZIP -> CBSA and only APPROVED rows count (a pending, machine-extracted row is not yet a closure). This mirrors the Metro Pulse page, not the convergence board — the board applies neither filter and counts higher. Layoffs take the same ZIP -> CBSA and review treatment, and a WARN notice counts if it affects >= 10 people or does not state a headcount (a NULL is not 'fewer than 10').
Written from the figures above · CBSA 12580 · geo_events · last changed 13 Sep 2026
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What this page can’t do
Everything above is a snapshot — one market, as it stands today, and
it’s yours to read. What a snapshot can’t tell you is when it moves: which loan slipped a DSCR band
this month, which bank’s early-warning rank crossed into the top quartile, which submarket started turning
while the headline number still looked fine. Distress doesn’t announce itself on the day you happen to check.
This page
One metro · one moment · you come looking.
Verstavo
Every metro · every month · it comes looking for you.
CMBS covers the securitized slice of CRE; bank, closure and layoff signals widen the view.
“No data” in a zone means we don’t observe it here, not that there is no stress.
Employment is BLS (QCEW annual, LAUS monthly) — public data, and the demand leg under all of it.
See the whole picture, not just the pulse.
Metro Pulse is the free, public read. The Verstavo platform goes loan‑by‑loan — stress
scores, maturity walls, special‑servicing transfers, bank CRE, and your own portfolio benchmarked
against the market.