Atlanta's CMBS book runs to $4.6B across 266 loans, and the distress reported by servicers stands at 3.6% as of July 2026 — a rate that has been rising in the filed record. The largest single sector is Retail at $1.2B, but it is not where the trouble sits: Atlanta retail carries a 0.3% distress rate against a 2.7% national mark. The elevated risk is concentrated in Office, a $0.6B book running at 14.6% distress — above the 11.3% national office rate and well clear of anything else in the metro.
Across the rest of the stack, Atlanta reads calmer than the country. Hospitality ($0.9B) sits at 3.7% versus 6.1% nationally, Multifamily ($0.7B) at 5.0% against 7.6%, and Industrial ($0.6B) at 0.8% against 2.7%. Median DSCR across the book is 1.74. The maturity wall is the number to watch: the heaviest load lands in 2029, with $1.3B — 27% of the book — coming due at a 3.8% distress rate, followed by $1.0B in 2028 and $0.9B in 2031.
On the ground, the past year brought 110 distress events — 48 store closures and 62 layoff notices totaling 9,964 jobs — even as metro unemployment held at 3.2%, down 0.2 points from a year earlier. Among 21 banks tracked, one is distressed and five carry early-warning flags.
For Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, commercial real estate distress is elevated across all four independent feeds, with all 6 of 6 possible pairings agreeing on heightened stress. Store closures number 44 over the trailing year, ranking 9th of 392 metros by count but only 197th by rate at 1.74 closures per 100,000 jobs—a reading that is elevated by the metro's size rather than by per-unit stress. Layoff notices (WARN) total 70, ranking 12th of 386 by count and 68th by rate at 0.31% of metro employment. Bank CRE over the noncurrent line sits at $3,477.3 million, ranking 16th of 393 by count and 95th by rate at 7.83%, though this figure is allocated by branch deposits and cannot be fully confirmed. Securitized loans in special servicing number 11 rows, ranking 16th of 335 by count and 76th by rate at 4.2% of the securitized balance read here. The single size-driven caveat applies only to the closures leg; all three other legs show genuine rate-based elevation alongside strong count rankings. No pairs disagree, and none are unadjudicated due to blindness—so the distress signal is broad-based and mutually reinforcing across tenant operations, employer headcount, bank balance sheets, and securitized trust paper.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
44 closures | 1.74 per 100k jobs | 9 of 392 | 197 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
70 notices | 0.31% | 12 of 386 | 68 of 386 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.48bn | 7.83% | 16 of 393 | 95 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-03-31
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
11 loan records | 4.2% | 16 of 335 | 76 of 335 | elevated 2026-07-29
|
In Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, the elevated distress signals are bank distressed CRE exposure, CMBS special servicing, store closures, and WARN notices. Specifically, bank CRE at the 90th percentile is 27.1%, with bank CRE 7.7% allocated to distressed lender exposure totaling $3.48bn, while CMBS special servicing UPB is $191.0mm (a 4.2% share of metro UPB). Additionally, there are 44 store closures and 70 WARN notices over the past year. The reading for distressed banks (count: 0 and assets $0.00bn) is unavailable as a distress signal since none are present, and the analyst should note that no elevated bank-level default figure is cited here beyond the at-risk percentage.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameris Bank GA | 38.6% | 263% total 319%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| United Bank GA | 66.5% | 124% total 172%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Citizens Trust Bank GA | 85.9% | 110% total 177%
|
🔒 | 1.62% |
| Affinity Bank, National Association GA | 100.0% | 220% total 360%
|
🔒 | 0.46% |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County GA | 100.0% | 211% total 399%
|
🔒 | 2.42% |
| The Citizens Bank Of Georgia GA | 100.0% | 200% total 292%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Coastal States Bank SC | 36.8% | 238% total 331%
|
🔒 | 1.53% |
| Bank Of Madison GA | 100.0% | 207% total 277%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| First National Bank Of Griffin GA | 100.0% | 196% total 258%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Southern First Bank SC | 12.8% | 236% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Vallant Bank GA | 24.3% | 264% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| Shinhan Bank America NY | 31.0% | 257% total 382%
|
🔒 | 0.88% |
| American Commerce Bank, National Association GA | 89.3% | 257% total 369%
|
🔒 | 3.03% |
| Georgia Banking Company GA | 100.0% | 290% total 370%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| Hometrust Bank NC | 7.8% | 235% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| New Millennium Bank NJ | 9.8% | 168% total 294%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| First National Community Bank GA | 20.9% | 225% total 384%
|
🔒 | 0.51% |
| Banksouth GA | 15.2% | 247% total 303%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Promiseone Bank GA | 75.9% | 284% total 364%
|
🔒 | 1.01% |
| Capital City Bank FL | 1.0% | 122% total 193%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| First Peoples Bank GA | 14.9% | 205% total 321%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Colony Bank GA | 8.1% | 278% total 392%
|
🔒 | 0.49% |
| Oconee State Bank GA | 12.8% | 248% total 482%
|
🔒 | 3.83% |
| First American Bank And Trust Company GA | 23.6% | 293% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank GA | 9.5% | 285% total 389%
|
🔒 | 1.54% |
| Fieldpoint Private Bank & Trust CT | 0.7% | 257% total 330%
|
🔒 | 1.66% |
| Hyperion Bank PA | 43.2% | 348% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.91% |
| American Pride Bank GA | 11.8% | 431% total 502%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Wallis Bank TX | 9.9% | 419% total 676%
|
🔒 | 1.67% |
| Central Bank FL | 8.5% | 398% total 588%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| First Carolina Bank NC | 3.7% | 448% total 515%
|
🔒 | 1.07% |
| Paragon Bank TN | 1.8% | 321% total 423%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Pcb Bank CA | 0.2% | 304% total 471%
|
🔒 | 0.13% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Commerce Bank, National Association | $332M | 257% total 369%
|
3.03% | 🔒 |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County | $366M | 211% total 399%
|
2.42% | 🔒 |
| Touchmark National Bank | $283M | 387% total 510%
|
2.26% | 🔒 |
| Citizens Trust Bank | $197M | 110% total 177%
|
1.62% | 🔒 |
| Promiseone Bank | $332M | 284% total 364%
|
1.01% | 🔒 |
| Metro City Bank | $1.5B | 148% total 288%
|
0.47% | 🔒 |
| Craft Bank | $150M | 218% total 330%
|
0.98% | 🔒 |
| Affinity Bank, National Association | $406M | 220% total 360%
|
0.46% | 🔒 |
In Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, the banks that qualify — 33 of them, against 22 excluded here — show $653.7mm of room after committed draws, against a 24-month CMBS wall of $756.6mm across 63 maturing loans, a wall-to-room ratio of 1.16 — above the median of 0.20 and 52 of 270 counting from the most strained, so local banks would need to absorb more than their remaining capacity. That said, the wall is CMBS only, so everywhere ratio here is an upper bound on how much of it local banks would have to absorb, and room is itself only a proxy built from deposit footprint rather than a measurement of lending footprint.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | -2.6% | +1.3% | 95.5% | +0.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | -6.2% | -2.0% | 96.2% | -2.6% | 2026-04-28 |
| MAA | +0.6% | 0.0% | 95.2% | 0.0% | 2026-07-29 |
Over the trailing 365-day window, the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA metro recorded 48 store closures and 62 WARN notices, with 9,964 jobs affected. Note that the jobs figure is a floor, since notices stating no headcount are counted but contribute 0 jobs. On the commercial-real-estate bankruptcy side, the reading is 0, though this is a STATE PROXY rather than a metro-native count, and it carries the caveat that bankruptcy filings carry the filer's state, not the property's location.