Atlanta carries $4.8 billion of CMBS across 271 loans, and the filed record is turning: distress has risen to 3.6% as of July 2026, up from the 3.1% logged on the book. That is still a measured number for a metro this size, and the median DSCR of 1.7 says most of the paper is covering itself. But the direction is the story — the servicer-declared rate is moving the wrong way, and the on-the-ground ledger backs it up: 108 distress events over the past year, split between 53 store closures and 55 layoff notices totaling 9,119 jobs, against a local unemployment rate of 3.4% that has eased 0.2 point over the year.
The maturity wall is where the pressure concentrates. The heaviest load lands in 2029, $1.3 billion, or 27% of the book, and that vintage already carries a 3.8% distress rate. Another $1.0 billion comes due within 24 months, with $1.0 billion stacked in 2028 and $1.1 billion in 2031 — the latter clean at 0.0% for now. Across the bank channel, the footprint is smaller and calmer: of 20 lenders, one is distressed and five sit on early-warning watch.
By sector, the book leans retail ($1.2 billion) and hospitality ($0.9 billion), with multifamily ($0.8 billion), industrial ($0.7 billion) and office ($0.6 billion) behind. Office is the thinnest slice here, which matters when the national office distress rate stands at 11.1% — Atlanta simply has less of that exposure to absorb. The national marks frame the rest: hospitality runs 6.2% and multifamily 7.9% nationally, against retail at 2.6% and industrial at 2.7%. For desks underwriting this metro, the watch items are clear — the rising filed rate and the 2029 concentration.
In Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, all four feeds read elevated right now: store closures at 54 closures, or 2.13 per 100k jobs; layoff notices (WARN) at 58 notices, or 0.27%; bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line at $3.50bn, or 6.85%; and securitized loans in special servicing at 8 loan records, or 3.07%. That gives four legs elevated out of four, with 6 pairs with both legs elevated and 0 pairs with both legs quiet across 6 pairs of legs compared, and no legs that cannot be read. Note that the counts rank high on size while the rates sit mid-pack, so the rate should be read beside each count; the bank figure is an allocation by branch deposits rather than a confirmed local book.
| Signal | Level | Rate | Rank by count | Rank by rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| store closures store closures per 100,000 jobs |
54 closures | 2.13 per 100k jobs | 9 of 392 | 192 of 392 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| layoff notices (WARN) workers on layoff notices as a share of the metro's employment |
58 notices | 0.27% | 14 of 382 | 85 of 382 | elevated trailing 365 days to today
|
| bank CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line share of the CRE lent into this metro that sits at a lender over the blended-noncurrent line |
$3.50bn | 6.85% | 17 of 393 | 103 of 393 | elevated
allocated 2026-06-30
|
| securitized loans in special servicing share of the securitized balance read here that is in special servicing |
8 loan records | 3.07% | 22 of 335 | 88 of 335 | elevated 2026-09-29
|
In Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, the distress signals reading elevated are bank CRE distress, with $3.50bn of CRE at lenders over the noncurrent line, CMBS in special servicing of $146.0mm, and realized real-economy stress visible in 58 WARN notices and 54 store closures over the past year; the credit side carries real dollars, with $0.50bn of assets at those lenders, a 90th percentile bank CRE at risk reading of 36.8%, and a 6.9% share of bank CRE needing no branch-deposit allocation, against $51.03bn of bank CRE lent into this metro and a 3.1% share of this metro's CMBS balance in special servicing, across legs agreeing at 4 in a peak phase. The reading is unavailable for any further breakdown of the CMBS special servicing balance beyond the figures given.
| Bank | Deposit share | CRE / Capital* | Room contributed | Noncurrent CRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameris Bank GA | 40.0% | 263% total 319%
|
🔒 | 0.12% |
| United Bank GA | 66.6% | 124% total 172%
|
🔒 | 0.10% |
| Citizens Trust Bank GA | 85.8% | 110% total 177%
|
🔒 | 1.62% |
| Affinity Bank, National Association GA | 100.0% | 220% total 360%
|
🔒 | 0.46% |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County GA | 100.0% | 211% total 399%
|
🔒 | 2.42% |
| The Citizens Bank Of Georgia GA | 100.0% | 200% total 292%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Coastal States Bank SC | 38.1% | 238% total 331%
|
🔒 | 1.53% |
| Bank Of Madison GA | 100.0% | 207% total 277%
|
🔒 | 0.03% |
| First National Bank Of Griffin GA | 100.0% | 196% total 258%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Southern First Bank SC | 14.3% | 236% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Craft Bank GA | 100.0% | 218% total 330%
|
🔒 | 0.98% |
| Firstbank TN | 6.4% | 269% total 386%
|
🔒 | 0.97% |
| Georgia Banking Company GA | 100.0% | 290% total 370%
|
🔒 | 0.04% |
| American Commerce Bank, National Association GA | 87.1% | 257% total 369%
|
🔒 | 3.03% |
| Hometrust Bank NC | 7.9% | 235% total 324%
|
🔒 | 0.68% |
| Shinhan Bank America NY | 26.2% | 257% total 382%
|
🔒 | 0.88% |
| First Peoples Bank GA | 36.9% | 205% total 321%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| New Millennium Bank NJ | 10.7% | 168% total 294%
|
🔒 | 0.08% |
| Vallant Bank GA | 12.7% | 264% total 397%
|
🔒 | 0.71% |
| First National Community Bank GA | 21.0% | 225% total 384%
|
🔒 | 0.51% |
| Banksouth GA | 14.4% | 247% total 303%
|
🔒 | 0.54% |
| Seacoast National Bank FL | 0.7% | 230% total 325%
|
🔒 | 0.57% |
| Promiseone Bank GA | 76.3% | 284% total 364%
|
🔒 | 1.01% |
| Bankunited, National Association FL | 0.3% | 194% total 243%
|
🔒 | 0.62% |
| Capital City Bank FL | 1.0% | 122% total 193%
|
🔒 | 0.40% |
| Colony Bank GA | 5.9% | 278% total 392%
|
🔒 | 0.49% |
| Oconee State Bank GA | 11.7% | 248% total 482%
|
🔒 | 3.83% |
| First American Bank And Trust Company GA | 23.3% | 293% total 391%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Legacy State Bank GA | 100.0% | 294% total 452%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Farmers And Merchants Bank GA | 9.0% | 285% total 389%
|
🔒 | 1.54% |
| Bank Of Dudley GA | 0.9% | 278% total 436%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Hyperion Bank PA | 45.3% | 348% total 363%
|
🔒 | 0.91% |
| First Community Bank SC | 10.3% | 316% total 473%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| Wallis Bank TX | 9.2% | 419% total 676%
|
🔒 | 1.67% |
| Central Bank FL | 9.0% | 398% total 588%
|
🔒 | 0.06% |
| American Pride Bank GA | 6.1% | 431% total 502%
|
🔒 | 0.00% |
| First Carolina Bank NC | 3.8% | 448% total 515%
|
🔒 | 1.07% |
| Paragon Bank TN | 2.7% | 321% total 423%
|
🔒 | 0.23% |
| Pcb Bank CA | 1.9% | 304% total 471%
|
🔒 | 0.13% |
| Bank | Total CRE | CRE / Capital* | Noncurrent CRE | Early Warning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Commerce Bank, National Association | $332M | 257% total 369%
|
3.03% | 🔒 |
| Community Bank Of Pickens County | $366M | 211% total 399%
|
2.42% | 🔒 |
| Touchmark National Bank | $283M | 387% total 510%
|
2.26% | 🔒 |
| Citizens Trust Bank | $197M | 110% total 177%
|
1.62% | 🔒 |
| Promiseone Bank | $332M | 284% total 364%
|
1.01% | 🔒 |
| Metro City Bank | $1.5B | 148% total 288%
|
0.47% | 🔒 |
| Craft Bank | $150M | 218% total 330%
|
0.98% | 🔒 |
| Bank Of Monticello | $56M | 163% total 234%
|
0.35% | 🔒 |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA shows a Wall-to-room ratio of 1.42, placing it 48 out of this many metros ranked, where a lower rank number means more strain; the CMBS maturing in the window is $972.6mm across this many loans: 75, while Local bank room, after those draws stands at $684.3mm among 39 Qualifying local banks, against $1.80bn of Committed construction draws and $1.83bn of Local bank room, before committed draws. On that basis the local banks do not appear to have the capacity to refinance the maturing wall outright, though this reading rests on the room-is-a-proxy caveat — deposit footprint approximates lending footprint rather than measuring it — and the wall is CMBS-only, so the ratio is an upper bound on what local banks would have to absorb; note also that this many banks are excluded from the calculation: 20, and it is worth checking whether they dominate this metro's lending.
| REIT | SS NOI | SS Revenue | Occupancy | Rent | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | -2.6% | +1.3% | 95.5% | +0.7% | 2026-07-30 |
| EQR | -6.2% | -2.0% | 96.2% | -2.6% | 2026-04-28 |
| MAA | +0.6% | 0.0% | 95.2% | 0.0% | 2026-07-29 |
Over the most recent 365 days in Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, the record shows 54 store closures and 52 WARN layoff notices affecting 8,763 jobs, alongside 80 cRE-related bankruptcies — with the caveat that the bankruptcy figure is a state proxy rather than a metro-native count, and that the jobs figure is a floor since notices stating no headcount contribute zero.